Key Points
• New research suggests US-based users remain the largest participants in Polymarket’s political prediction markets despite geoblocking measures.
• Blockchain analytics firm Allium estimates US users account for the highest political trading volume and wallet activity on the platform.
• The findings indicate many users may be bypassing geographic restrictions through offshore access methods.
• Polymarket continues facing regulatory scrutiny as authorities expand oversight of prediction markets globally.
United States-based users remain the largest participants in political prediction markets on Polymarket despite the platform’s restrictions on American customers, according to new research released by blockchain analytics firm Allium.
The report estimates that US users account for the highest political prediction market trading volume and wallet participation on Polymarket’s global platform, separate from Polymarket US, the regulated domestic version launched in December with a more limited range of markets.
According to Allium, blocking US access has not eliminated American participation but instead shifted activity beyond direct regulatory oversight.
Geoblocking Has Not Eliminated Participation
Polymarket agreed to restrict access for US users as part of a $1.4 million settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022.
However, Allium’s research suggests those restrictions have not fully prevented American traders from accessing the international platform.
The firm noted that its analysis identified geographic information for approximately 6% of platform wallets, meaning the results should be viewed as directional rather than definitive. Even with that limitation, US-based users represented the largest national group participating in political markets.
The findings add to ongoing questions surrounding the effectiveness of geoblocking measures on decentralized cryptocurrency platforms.
US Traders Focus on Global Conflicts
The report also identified notable differences in trading preferences between US users and the broader Polymarket community.
According to Allium, American traders showed significantly greater interest in geopolitical events, particularly prediction markets related to the conflict involving Iran. Five of the top twelve markets traded by US participants were linked to developments surrounding the regional conflict.
Conversely, US users appeared less active in election-related markets, which are already available through regulated platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket US.
The analysis suggests American users are increasingly turning to international prediction markets for events not widely available through domestic regulated platforms.
Previous Research Reached Similar Conclusions
The Allium report follows separate research published in June by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane.
Crane estimated that approximately 30% of all trading volume on Polymarket originated from US-based users despite the company’s efforts to block access through IP restrictions and virtual private network (VPN) detection.
His analysis estimated that American users may have generated between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion in trading volume between May 2025 and April 2026 by examining trading activity patterns and market participation.
Polymarket has reportedly strengthened its efforts to detect and block VPN services commonly used to circumvent geographic restrictions.
Global Regulatory Pressure Continues
Polymarket continues to face increasing regulatory scrutiny across multiple jurisdictions.
The platform is fully blocked in more than 34 countries, with Spain becoming one of the latest nations to restrict access while authorities investigate whether prediction market operators are offering services without appropriate licenses.
Additional countries, including Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan and Poland, currently allow users only to close existing positions without opening new trades, while certain regional restrictions also remain in place within Canada and parts of Ukraine.
The expanding regulatory landscape reflects growing global attention toward decentralized prediction markets and their relationship with existing gambling, financial services and derivatives laws.
Outlook
The latest research highlights the ongoing challenge regulators and prediction market platforms face in enforcing geographic restrictions within decentralized digital markets. As user demand for political and geopolitical prediction markets continues to grow, authorities worldwide are expected to increase scrutiny over compliance, licensing and cross-border access, while platforms continue balancing regulatory obligations with global user demand.
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