SKN | Bitcoin and Ethereum Hold Steady as Citi Raises Its 12-Month Crypto Targets

Key Points:

• Bitcoin opened at $83,566.34 on Oct. 1 and rose to $83,805.02 by 7:20 a.m. ET, while Ethereum moved from $2,684.27 to $2,695.01.
• Citigroup raised its 12-month Bitcoin target to $113,000 from $82,000 and its Ethereum target to $3,028 from $2,240, citing stronger market activity, macro conditions and renewed ETF inflows.
• Citi expects approximately $5 billion of crypto inflows over the next 12 months, with advisers and brokerages gradually increasing allocations rather than creating a single surge of institutional demand.

Bitcoin and Ethereum began October with limited price movement, extending a period of relatively tight trading after both assets delivered substantial gains during the third quarter. Bitcoin opened at $83,566.34 on Thursday and reached $83,805.02 by 7:20 a.m. ET, while Ethereum climbed from $2,684.27 to $2,695.01 as investors assessed a new outlook from Citigroup.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Remain in a Narrow Range

Bitcoin’s opening price was 0.1% below Wednesday’s opening level, while Ethereum opened 0.3% higher. The modest moves contrasted with the magnitude of the previous quarter’s rally, when Bitcoin gained nearly 40% and Ethereum advanced about 68%, according to the market data cited in the Yahoo Finance report.

The lack of significant movement suggests that investors were not immediately repricing the market around Citi’s revised forecasts. Instead, both assets entered October close to levels established during the final days of September, leaving macroeconomic conditions, ETF flows and institutional participation as key variables for the next phase.

Citi Raises Its 12-Month Targets

Citigroup raised its 12-month Bitcoin forecast to $113,000 from $82,000 and its Ethereum forecast to $3,028 from $2,240. The bank attributed the revisions to stronger crypto-market activity, a more supportive macroeconomic environment and a resumption of exchange-traded fund inflows.

Citi also expects approximately $5 billion in crypto inflows over the next 12 months. Rather than assuming a rapid acceleration, the bank expects a slower and steadier pattern as financial advisers and brokerages gradually increase their Bitcoin allocations.

That distinction is important for institutional investors. A gradual increase in allocations would imply that crypto demand is becoming integrated into existing portfolio processes rather than relying exclusively on short-lived bursts of speculative capital.

ETF Flows Become a Central Market Variable

The renewed ETF activity cited by Citi comes after a strong period of institutional demand. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had attracted substantial inflows during September, although that momentum subsequently weakened. On Sept. 30, the funds recorded approximately $148.7 million in net outflows, ending a nine-session inflow streak worth about $3.08 billion.

This makes ETF flows particularly important to the sustainability of Bitcoin’s recent price gains. If allocations resume at the pace Citi anticipates, they could provide a continuing source of spot-market demand. Conversely, weaker flows would leave Bitcoin more exposed to macroeconomic and market-positioning factors.

Macro and Regulatory Conditions Remain Relevant

Citi’s revised outlook also reflects broader financial conditions. Bitcoin’s recovery has occurred alongside changes in the U.S. dollar, Treasury markets and expectations for monetary policy. The bank also noted that the failure of the CLARITY Act in the Senate narrowed the path toward broader federal crypto market-structure legislation, while subsequent SEC rule announcements helped ease some of the negative sentiment associated with the legislative setback.

For the fourth quarter, the gap between subdued daily price action and Citi’s higher 12-month targets highlights the importance of incoming evidence rather than forecasts alone. ETF flows, institutional allocation trends, macroeconomic conditions and regulatory developments will determine whether the market can translate the strong third-quarter recovery into sustained activity through the remainder of 2026.