SKN | Bitcoin Faces Renewed Pressure as Hotter U.S. Inflation Strengthens December Fed Rate-Hike Expectations

Key Points:

• Bitcoin traded near $74,200 ahead of the October U.S. inflation report, as investors increased expectations of another Federal Reserve rate increase.
• October headline CPI subsequently rose 0.4% month over month, above the 0.3% forecast, while core inflation increased 0.3%, exceeding the 0.2% expectation.
• Fed Governor Christopher Waller supports a December rate increase even if inflation cools, while lower oil prices offer some relief and Anthropic’s withdrawal of inaccurate IPO pricing details adds uncertainty to technology-sector sentiment.

Bitcoin entered November 10 under pressure as traders prepared for another U.S. inflation reading and reassessed the likelihood of tighter monetary policy. The October Consumer Price Index has since come in hotter than expected, reinforcing concerns that the Federal Reserve may maintain a restrictive stance into December. The development places digital assets between persistent inflation risks, shifting interest-rate expectations and mixed signals from broader financial markets.

Hotter Inflation Complicates the Federal Reserve Outlook

October’s headline CPI increased 0.4% from the previous month, exceeding economists’ 0.3% forecast, while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% against expectations of 0.2%. The headline increase was slower than September’s 0.6% monthly advance, but the result still exceeded market expectations. A conventional year-over-year comparison was unavailable because the U.S. government shutdown in October 2025 prevented the collection of comparable inflation data.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller had already signaled support for another increase at the December 8–9 policy meeting, even if October inflation showed improvement. He argued that failing to deliver an increase already reflected in market expectations could weaken the central bank’s credibility and effectively loosen financial conditions. Waller also said a 50-basis-point move should be considered if core inflation remained around 0.3% or higher.

Before the inflation release, futures markets were pricing an 85% probability of a December increase, according to Reuters. The latest CPI figures strengthen the argument for continued tightening, although Waller’s position does not represent a final decision by the Federal Open Market Committee.

Bitcoin and Risk Assets Remain Sensitive to Rates

Bitcoin traded around $74,200 in the hours before the report, down approximately 1.4% since midnight UTC, while the CoinDesk 20 Index declined 1.2%. The weakness reflected investor caution ahead of a major macroeconomic release rather than evidence of a single crypto-specific trigger.

Higher interest rates can weigh on digital assets by increasing the relative appeal of yield-bearing instruments and raising the cost of leveraged positions. They can also reduce liquidity available for speculative investments. For institutional participants, the central issue is whether tighter policy expectations translate into sustained pressure on spot demand, exchange-traded fund flows and derivatives positioning.

The broader market picture was mixed. U.S. stock futures weakened after Monday’s rally, while gold traded below $4,100 an ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index remained firm below 102, illustrating how investors continued to favor caution ahead of the inflation data.

Falling Oil Prices Offer Limited Relief

Energy markets provided a partial counterweight to inflation concerns. Oil prices declined approximately 2% over 24 hours, with West Texas Intermediate trading near $84 per barrel and Brent crude around $90. The retreat followed signals from President Donald Trump that further strikes against Iran would be paused, easing some immediate concerns about energy supply disruptions.

Lower crude prices can reduce headline inflation pressure if the decline persists and passes through to consumer energy costs. However, Waller has warned that energy-related pressures may remain elevated, particularly where transportation, insurance and refining constraints affect prices. Consequently, one session of lower oil prices is not sufficient to establish a durable improvement in the inflation outlook.

Anthropic IPO Uncertainty Adds to Technology-Sector Caution

Investor sentiment also faced uncertainty after Anthropic, the developer of Claude, withdrew IPO pricing details that had been circulated to bankers. The initial information indicated a proposed offering of approximately 867 million shares at $70 to $80 each, potentially raising $69.3 billion. The company subsequently said the pricing information was inaccurate and that an updated filing would follow.

The episode does not establish that Anthropic has abandoned its listing plans, but it leaves investors without confirmed terms from the withdrawn information. Coming amid volatility in AI-related equities, the uncertainty adds another variable to technology-sector valuations and risk appetite.

Investors will now monitor the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, incoming inflation indicators and changes in institutional crypto demand. For Bitcoin, a sustained recovery will likely require more than temporary relief from lower energy prices: liquidity conditions, spot-market participation and the direction of monetary policy remain central to the outlook. The latest inflation figures have made that policy path more difficult to dismiss.