BitMEX Co-Founder Arthur Hayes Sees Money Printing Extending Crypto Bull Cycle Into 2026

Key Points:

• Arthur Hayes expects global liquidity injections to prolong crypto’s bullish cycle beyond 2025.

• Expansionary central bank policy and fiscal deficits remain primary drivers of Bitcoin and digital assets.

• Investors may see extended opportunities, but volatility risks tied to inflation and policy shifts persist.

Macro Tailwinds for Crypto

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, believes the current digital asset cycle could stretch well into 2026, fueled by a new wave of global money printing. Hayes, known for his outspoken macro views, argues that central banks’ balance sheet expansions and government deficit spending continue to underpin risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

“With fiscal deficits widening and central banks forced to absorb sovereign debt, liquidity will remain abundant,” Hayes said in a recent commentary. “That excess liquidity doesn’t just sit in bonds—it flows into assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other tokens.”

His perspective contrasts with conventional four-year Bitcoin cycle models, which often tie market peaks to halving events. Instead, Hayes points to macroeconomic forces, suggesting the bull market may outlast historical patterns.

Crypto Market Dynamics

Bitcoin currently trades near $117,000, up 40% year-to-date, while Ethereum sits above $3,600, supported by consistent inflows into spot ETFs and robust futures demand. Institutional products have attracted over $2.8 billion in net inflows since early September, strengthening the view that digital assets are becoming mainstream portfolio components.

Derivatives data further supports the bullish case: Bitcoin futures maintain a premium to spot, with open interest rising steadily, signaling leveraged bets on continued upside. While Hayes acknowledges short-term corrections are inevitable, he maintains that macro liquidity will keep driving the broader trend.

“Cycles don’t die of old age—they end when liquidity tightens,” Hayes wrote. “Right now, liquidity is expanding.”

Policy and Regulation in the Spotlight

Hayes’ outlook comes as regulators worldwide step up oversight of digital assets. In the U.S., the SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the CFTC’s efforts to integrate tokenized collateral mark significant milestones. Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific jurisdictions such as Hong Kong and Singapore are rolling out licensing regimes aimed at balancing compliance with innovation.

Yet Hayes remains skeptical that regulatory tightening will derail the current uptrend. Instead, he sees policymakers as participants in the same liquidity cycle, with governments reluctant to withdraw stimulus in the face of structural debt burdens.

Investor Psychology and Strategic Positioning

For investors, Hayes’ thesis underscores the interplay between macro policy and crypto behavior. If global liquidity remains abundant, traditional cycle-based strategies may underperform compared to approaches that track central bank actions and fiscal conditions.

Investor psychology also plays a role. With Bitcoin having consistently broken records relative to global money supply (M2), many see it as a hedge against fiat debasement. Gold has risen 38% in 2025, but Bitcoin’s ability to make fresh highs relative to money supply each cycle may reinforce its narrative as “digital hard money.”

Still, volatility remains a defining feature. A sudden policy pivot—such as an inflation-driven rate hike or a credit shock—could test Hayes’ extended cycle thesis and challenge investor confidence.

Looking Ahead

If Hayes is correct, crypto markets may have another 18 to 24 months of elevated momentum, creating opportunities for both retail and institutional participants. Sustained ETF inflows, growing adoption of tokenized assets, and cross-border demand could all reinforce the cycle.

However, the path forward will likely remain uneven, shaped by liquidity surges, policy surprises, and investor sentiment swings. For now, Hayes’ message is clear: as long as the world keeps printing money, the crypto bull market is unlikely to end on schedule.