Bitcoin Price Soars to $122,000 as Standard Chartered Sees Path to $200,000 by Year-End

Key Points:

• Bitcoin breaks above $122,000, gaining more than 12% in a week and nearing record highs.

• Standard Chartered projects $135,000 in the near term and $200,000 by year-end amid fiscal uncertainty.

• Liquidity growth, gold correlations, and institutional demand strengthen the case for continued upside.

Bitcoin Pushes Higher on Fiscal Uncertainty

Bitcoin surged past $122,000 this week, marking a more than 12% gain in just seven days and positioning itself for fresh all-time highs. The rally comes as the U.S. government shutdown intensifies concerns over fiscal stability, with investors increasingly treating Bitcoin as a hedge against prolonged uncertainty in traditional markets.

Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets, Geoff Kendrick, believes these conditions could extend Bitcoin’s momentum. “Bitcoin has historically shown resilience during periods of market stress, especially when fiscal visibility is low,” Kendrick said, adding that the bank now forecasts $135,000 in the near term and $200,000 by year-end.

Macro Backdrop Favors Digital Assets

The surge in Bitcoin comes against a backdrop of rising U.S. Treasury term premiums and fiscal disruption from Washington. Shutdowns tend to delay critical economic data releases and weaken investor visibility, often prompting more cautious central bank policies.

For digital assets, these dynamics create conditions where scarcity-driven assets like Bitcoin attract capital inflows. Currently, Bitcoin trades at $122,200, just below its August peak of $124,480, while the overall crypto market capitalization has surpassed $2.4 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.

Liquidity Signals Strengthening Momentum

Market analysts highlight several liquidity factors supporting Bitcoin’s climb. Global M2 money supply growth has accelerated in 2025, while stablecoin issuance continues to expand — both indicators of deepening capital inflows into crypto.

Bitcoin has also mirrored gold’s rally with a notable 40-day lag, reinforcing its role as a digital hedge. JPMorgan analysts argue that Bitcoin remains undervalued relative to gold, estimating a theoretical upside of $165,000 if investors continue to favor “debasement trades” — strategies aimed at hedging fiat currency erosion.

Investor Behavior and Market Psychology

While retail activity has reemerged, the more significant driver of this cycle has been institutional adoption. Demand for Bitcoin ETFs, custody solutions, and structured investment vehicles has broadened the investor base, providing stability relative to earlier speculative-driven rallies.

Historically, Bitcoin’s September performance has been a reliable precursor to strong fourth-quarter rallies. In 2025, the cryptocurrency closed the month up roughly 5% at $114,000. In comparable years such as 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024, similar positive closes were followed by Q4 surges averaging over 50%, fueling optimism that the current setup could repeat.

Outlook: Testing New Highs

With Bitcoin consolidating near $122,000 and momentum indicators signaling further upside, the cryptocurrency enters Q4 with a strong technical and macro foundation. The prospect of extended fiscal disruption in the U.S., coupled with global liquidity expansion, positions Bitcoin to challenge and potentially surpass its previous all-time highs.

While risks remain from regulatory actions and unexpected macro shocks, the combination of institutional flows, investor psychology, and scarcity-driven dynamics continues to support bullish forecasts. Standard Chartered’s $200,000 year-end target reflects the growing consensus that Bitcoin’s role in the financial system is evolving — from speculative asset to structural hedge.