Gold Will Outshine Bitcoin as ‘New Safe Haven,’ Says Market Researcher Ed Yardeni

3 Key Points:

• Market veteran Ed Yardeni says gold has replaced bitcoin as the top safe-haven asset amid global geopolitical tension.

• Gold prices have surged nearly 60% in 2025, far outperforming bitcoin’s 20% gain year-to-date.

• Yardeni forecasts gold could reach $5,000 by 2026 and as high as $10,000 by decade’s end as investors flee risk assets.

Gold Reclaims Its Throne as Market Turmoil Deepens

Gold’s blistering rally through 2025 has reignited debate over the ultimate store of value. According to market researcher Ed Yardeni, the yellow metal has “outshined” bitcoin as the world’s preferred safe-haven asset, thanks to its historical reliability and renewed geopolitical demand.

In a research note published Wednesday, Yardeni wrote, “Bitcoin has been described as ‘digital gold,’ but we would describe gold as ‘physical bitcoin.’” His remarks come as gold prices soared above $4,200 per ounce, marking a record high and a stunning 60% year-to-date gain. By comparison, bitcoin is up only about 20% in 2025, having slipped 9% in recent weeks amid volatile trading conditions.

The divergence between the two assets underscores how global investors are reprioritizing safety over speculation as tensions rise between the United States and China.

Geopolitical Strains Drive a Flight to Safety

Gold’s recent surge is closely linked to mounting global uncertainty. President Donald Trump’s announcement of potential 100% tariffs on Chinese imports — including a possible ban on cooking oil — has intensified fears of a prolonged trade conflict.

That escalation sent a wave of risk aversion through financial markets. The Nasdaq Composite fell nearly 1%, while bitcoin slid to around $111,000, down from a record $126,000 earlier this month. In contrast, gold climbed nearly 4% in just two weeks, as investors rotated into hard assets.

“Investors seeking protection from mounting geopolitical risks have been heading for the hills to mine for gold as well as silver,” Yardeni said. He also noted that silver, often a lagging indicator, has started to follow gold’s trajectory — a sign of broader confidence in precious metals as strategic hedges.

Bitcoin’s Liquidity Strain and Volatility Gap

While gold benefited from risk aversion, bitcoin faced a liquidity shock. Around $19 billion in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated over the past week, forcing widespread margin calls and accelerating the market’s correction.

Despite bitcoin’s institutional growth and adoption as a “debasement hedge,” Yardeni argues that its volatility remains a barrier to true safe-haven status. “Bitcoin is still a risk-on asset,” he wrote, noting that its price behavior tends to align more with tech equities than traditional stores of value.

Long-term blockchain metrics, such as hash rate and active address counts, remain healthy, suggesting the decline is driven by speculative leverage rather than structural weakness. Still, Yardeni believes that during periods of acute macro stress, liquidity preference favors traditional safe assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries.

The Case for Gold’s Continued Strength

Yardeni projects that gold could breach $5,000 per ounce by 2026 and possibly reach $10,000 by the end of the decade, citing sustained fiscal expansion, persistent inflation, and geopolitical fragmentation.

“The world is entering a new era of fiscal dominance,” he noted, referring to the growing reliance of governments on debt-financed spending. “As real yields fall and geopolitical risks rise, gold is the natural beneficiary.”

Bitcoin, meanwhile, may continue to function as a long-term inflation hedge, but Yardeni suggests its role as a “crisis hedge” remains unproven. While both assets benefit from money printing and monetary debasement, their investor bases differ: gold attracts capital preservationists, while bitcoin still appeals to speculative risk-takers.

A Shifting Paradigm in Store-of-Value Assets

The sharp divergence between gold and bitcoin in 2025 highlights a new phase in global market psychology — one where traditional safe-havens are reasserting dominance amid heightened volatility.

As central banks maintain liquidity support and political tensions intensify, investors may continue to favor assets with deep liquidity and historical credibility. For Yardeni, that means the “new bitcoin” isn’t digital at all — it’s the same physical metal investors have trusted for centuries.