Bitcoin extended its retreat on Thursday, breaking decisively below the psychological $100,000 mark and sliding to $96,600 during Asian trading hours, its lowest level since May. The decline came as global risk markets endured another wave of sell-offs, led by a sharp reversal in U.S. tech stocks and waning conviction from institutional crypto allocators.
A weak macro backdrop, slowing ETF inflows and renewed pressure from long-term bitcoin holders have collectively shifted market conditions from neutral to structurally bearish, according to several analysts tracking capital flows and market microstructure.
Crypto Markets: Drawdown Deepens as Liquidity Frays
Major cryptocurrencies tracked bitcoin lower through the week. Ether fell to $3,182, marking a 12% weekly decline, while XRP dropped nearly 9% to $2.25. BNB slid 7.8% to $932. Solana suffered the steepest losses among layer-1 majors, plunging roughly 16.5% to $140. Cardano slipped to $0.491, DOGE drifted to $0.161, and Tron held comparatively firm near $0.292 despite the broader sell-off.
The synchronized decline underscores deteriorating market structure across the digital asset complex. ETF inflows — previously a key pillar of market strength — slowed for the second straight week. At the same time, long-term holders, a group that historically provides downside absorption, increased distribution. Retail participation remains subdued, leaving the market vulnerable to outsized volatility.
Research group 10x said this combination signals a confirmed shift into a bear phase. “Structural support from funds, corporates and ETF issuance has weakened,” the firm noted, adding that liquidity pockets have thinned significantly since early October.
Technical Breakdown: Key Floors Under Pressure
Bitcoin’s fall through the monthly mid-range at $100,266 opened a clear liquidity gap, accelerating its slide toward the $93,000–$95,000 support band. Derivatives platform Bitunix said that losing this level risks a deeper move toward the $89,600 zone, an area with minimal historical buyer defense.
On the upside, any rebound faces immediate resistance at $100,200 and then $107,300 — a zone that rejected multiple rallies earlier this month. Market liquidity continues to compress, leaving even modest sell orders capable of driving outsized moves.
Nick Ruck, head of research at LVRG, said sentiment hinges in part on whether next week’s FOMC minutes convey any hint of dovishness. “ETF outflows, weakening trend structures and a developing death-cross keep momentum pointed lower,” he said. “Uncertainty around delayed economic releases following the government shutdown adds another layer of noise.”
Investor Sentiment: Risk-Off Psychology Takes Over
Market psychology has shifted toward capital preservation, traders say. The unwind follows bitcoin’s October 6 peak near $126,251 — a record set during the crest of optimism around the Trump administration’s pro-crypto posture. That narrative reversed sharply after the president’s surprise tariff comments rattled global markets and triggered deleveraging across risk assets.
Jeff Mei, COO of BTSE, said traders appear to be preparing for the possibility that the Federal Reserve pauses rate cuts in December. “Until policymakers have fresh data, the market is likely to remain in wait-and-see mode,” he said, adding that volatility could remain suppressed unless a major macro shock emerges.
Bitcoin briefly dipped below $93,700 on Sunday before recovering toward $94,800 early Monday, but analysts caution that stabilization remains tentative.
Forward Outlook
Near-term direction depends largely on macro catalysts — including FOMC guidance, equity market stability and the pace of ETF flows. A firm defense of the $93,000–$95,000 range could allow for a measured recovery, but failure to hold would expose the market to deeper structural softness. For now, traders remain defensive, awaiting clearer signals before re-engaging risk.
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