Key Points :
• Bitcoin remains trapped between $81,300 and $102,700, a structurally fragile zone defined by rising unrealized losses and persistent distribution.
• Realized losses hit $555 million/day, the highest since the FTX collapse, while long-term holders realized over $1 billion/day in profits.
•A divided Federal Reserve delivered a rate cut but signaled caution for 2026, weighing on risk assets and limiting Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim $100K.
Bitcoin’s latest rally attempt stalled on Wednesday, even as the Federal Reserve delivered its third 25-basis-point rate cut of the year. The central bank’s move, approved by a divided 9–3 vote, matched market expectations, but policymakers’ hawkish tone signaled unease about inflation, growth and the pace of easing in 2026. That uncertainty kept risk assets in check — and left Bitcoin pinned inside what analysts describe as a structurally fragile range.
Ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Bitcoin briefly traded above $94,000, following its pattern of rallying in the days leading into major macro events. But with the Fed’s messaging leaning cautious, traders appear unconvinced that monetary policy alone is enough to propel BTC back toward six-figure territory.
Hawkish Fed Cut Keeps Risk Assets on Edge
CNBC reported that several Fed members remain wary of inflation’s persistence and the durability of economic growth, raising doubts about whether the committee will be able to maintain its pace of rate cuts in 2026. Markets responded by pricing in a slower path of easing — a backdrop that historically tempers speculative flows into digital assets.
For Bitcoin, the timing is particularly sensitive. The market has spent weeks hovering below $100,000, unable to establish a foothold above key technical and onchain thresholds. Analysts warn that the longer BTC remains trapped, the heavier the structural pressure becomes for bullish investors.
Glassnode Flags a “Fragile Range” Beneath $100K
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin remains locked between the short-term holder (STH) cost basis at $102,700 and the network’s True Market Mean at $81,300. Price rejection across this band reflects deteriorating onchain conditions: thinning futures open interest, rising realized losses and persistent sell pressure from longer-term holders.
Realized losses surged to $555 million per day, the highest since the November 2022 capitulation following FTX’s collapse. Meanwhile, long-term holders — a historically stabilizing cohort — realized more than $1 billion per day in profits during the latest correction, peaking at $1.3 billion. Heavy distribution from these older wallets has repeatedly blocked BTC from reclaiming the $95,000–$102,000 zone that defines the top of its fragile range.
The relative unrealized loss (30-day SMA) rose to 4.4%, breaking a two-year stretch under 2% and signaling a transition into a higher-stress market environment. As unrealized losses accumulate, the probability of forced selling increases — tightening the time window bulls have to restore upward momentum.
Spot Demand Rises, but Leverage Remains Absent
Despite weakness in derivatives markets, spot flows have shown signs of revival. Open interest declined sharply through the October–November correction and has continued falling even as spot prices rebounded. The dynamic suggests that Bitcoin’s recent recovery attempts were led by spot buyers rather than leverage-driven speculation.
CryptoQuant noted that while spot-led rallies are generally healthier, sustained bull trends historically require a reacceleration in leveraged positioning. Today, spot volume represents only about 10% of derivatives activity — a structural imbalance that makes it difficult for spot flows alone to overcome macro-driven headwinds, particularly if the market reassesses the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory in early 2026.
A Critical Moment for Bitcoin’s Attempt to Reclaim $100K
With Bitcoin now trading around $92,600, the interplay between macro policy uncertainty and weakening onchain structure leaves the market vulnerable to further stagnation. As long as BTC remains below its short-term holder cost basis, analysts expect the fragile range to persist.
A decisive break above $100,000 would require renewed leverage participation, easing macro pressures and a reduction in realized losses. Without fresh catalysts, the path higher may remain elusive — and the window for a year-end recovery is narrowing quickly.
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