SKN | Bitcoin ETF Rebound Offers Hope, but Sustained Inflows Are Needed to Break BTC’s Range

Bitcoin continues to trade within a narrow and indecisive range between $86,000 and $90,000, reflecting a market caught between improving macro signals and lingering structural weakness. Earlier bull phases in 2024 were characterized by repeated days of ETF inflows exceeding $500 million, often several times per week. By comparison, a single strong day of inflows represents stabilization rather than confirmation of renewed institutional demand.

ETF Flows Improve, but Conviction Remains Thin

The ETF reversal comes at a critical moment for bitcoin, which has struggled to regain momentum after failing to reclaim the $95,000–$100,000 resistance zone earlier this month. While cumulative net inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs remain robust at nearly $58 billion, short-term flow volatility has become a key driver of price action.

Institutional investors appear increasingly sensitive to macro data, particularly inflation and central bank guidance. Wednesday’s trading unfolded ahead of U.S. inflation figures due later in the day, with expectations centered around a 3.1% year-on-year print. A softer reading could reinforce the view, articulated by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, that interest rates remain above neutral and that further easing may be warranted.

Until that clarity emerges, ETF inflows are likely to remain tactical rather than directional. Without sustained participation from large allocators, bitcoin’s ability to exit its current range remains limited.

Macro Uncertainty Keeps Risk Appetite in Check

Global macro factors continue to exert outsized influence on crypto markets. Attention is now shifting toward the Bank of Japan, which is widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points. While some analysts warn that a stronger yen could trigger risk aversion across global markets, foreign-exchange positioning suggests limited scope for an abrupt reaction.

In traditional markets, the dollar index has edged higher, pressuring commodities and risk assets. Gold retreated after failing to break through recent resistance, while equities remain under pressure following recent declines in the Nasdaq and S&P 500. This environment has kept crypto traders defensive, with funding rates slightly negative and futures open interest subdued.

Altcoins Lag as Bitcoin Dominance Rises

While bitcoin has stabilized, the broader crypto market continues to weaken. Bitcoin dominance has climbed toward 60%, reflecting ongoing underperformance among altcoins. Ether is down more than 2% on a 24-hour basis, while XRP is showing increasingly bearish technical signals. Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently pointed to a potential double-top pattern in XRP that could open the door to significantly lower prices.

Smaller-cap tokens have fared even worse, with the CoinDesk 80 index sharply underperforming larger assets. The divergence underscores a market still focused on capital preservation rather than speculative expansion.

What to Watch Next

For bitcoin, the path forward hinges on whether ETF inflows can evolve from episodic rebounds into a sustained trend. Without that confirmation, price action is likely to remain range-bound and reactive to macro headlines. Inflation data, central bank decisions, and currency market dynamics will remain dominant drivers in the near term.

While the latest ETF inflow data offers a constructive signal, it serves more as a reminder of what sustained demand once looked like than as proof that it has returned. Until institutional conviction rebuilds, bitcoin’s upside may remain constrained.