SKN | Ethereum Unlikely to Set New Highs in 2026 as Bitcoin Cycle Risk Looms, Says Ben Cowen

Ethereum may struggle to reach fresh all-time highs in 2026 if Bitcoin remains locked in a broader bear or late-cycle correction, according to prominent crypto analyst Ben Cowen. His assessment adds to growing debate over whether the next year will favor capital preservation over aggressive upside across major digital assets.

Speaking Tuesday on the Bankless podcast, Cowen said Ethereum’s ability to rally meaningfully depends heavily on Bitcoin’s macro trend. “If Bitcoin truly is in a bear market, which is what it feels like, it would be kind of hard for Ethereum to go up there,” he said.

The comments come as both Bitcoin and Ether trade well below recent peaks, with investors increasingly focused on downside scenarios heading into 2026.

Bitcoin’s Cycle Still Dictates Ethereum’s Ceiling

Historically, Ethereum has struggled to decouple from Bitcoin Bitcoin during extended drawdowns. Cowen’s caution aligns with that pattern, particularly as bitcoin remains nearly 30% below its October high and sentiment indicators continue to flash stress.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt added to the bearish backdrop last month, warning that bitcoin could fall as low as $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026. If that scenario materializes, Cowen argues, Ethereum would face significant headwinds regardless of its own network developments.

Market participants increasingly view bitcoin’s trajectory as the gating factor for any sustained altcoin upside, especially in a cycle where liquidity conditions remain uncertain and macro policy signals are mixed.

A Return to All-Time Highs Could Be a Bull Trap

Ethereum Ethereum last set its all-time high at $4,878 in 2021, briefly reclaiming that level in August before rolling over into a renewed downtrend. From current prices near $2,900, a move back to the peak would imply a rally of roughly 40%.

Cowen cautioned that even if such a move occurs, it may not be sustainable. “If ETH does manage to reclaim its all-time high, it could turn out to be a bull trap,” he said, outlining a scenario where price spikes higher before sharply reversing toward the $2,000 region.

That view reflects broader concerns about late-cycle rallies driven by positioning rather than fresh demand — a pattern that has historically preceded sharp corrections in crypto markets.

Altcoin Breadth Remains Weak

Cowen was notably selective in his outlook, saying Ethereum is the only altcoin he would even consider capable of retesting prior highs in the current cycle. “I think a lot of the other altcoins are kind of cooked at this point,” he said, noting that tokens which failed to set new highs earlier in the cycle rarely recover later.

That perspective echoes warnings from traditional research firms. Fundstrat Global Advisors reportedly cautioned investors in December about a potential “meaningful drawdown” in 2026, projecting Ether could slide into the $1,800–$2,000 range under adverse conditions.

Diverging Views Keep Volatility Elevated

Not all analysts share Cowen’s caution. Some traders argue Ethereum still has unfinished upside, particularly if network upgrades, ETF-related flows or shifts in monetary policy re-ignite risk appetite. Others see the current range as a prolonged consolidation rather than a definitive top.

For now, Ethereum sits at a crossroads: strong enough to remain a relative standout among altcoins, but still tightly constrained by bitcoin’s macro cycle and investor risk tolerance.

As 2026 approaches, the balance between caution and opportunism may define whether Ethereum delivers a late-cycle surprise — or confirms analysts’ fears of a prolonged cooling phase.