SKN | Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Resume Accumulation, Removing a Key Market Headwind

Bitcoin’s long-term holders have quietly shifted back into accumulation mode, easing one of the most persistent sources of sell pressure that has weighed on the market in recent months. Onchain data suggests that investors with a longer time horizon are once again adding to positions, a development that could help stabilize price action as bitcoin searches for direction heading into 2026.

A shift beneath the surface of the market

Long-term holders (LTHs) typically defined as entities holding bitcoin for at least 155 days  have turned net accumulators for the first time since July. According to onchain analytics firm Checkonchain, this cohort has accumulated roughly 33,000 BTC on a 30-day net basis.

At current prices near $87,700, that accumulation represents nearly $2.9 billion in net demand. While modest relative to bitcoin’s total supply, the change in behavior is significant because LTHs have been among the largest sources of selling pressure throughout 2025.

Until recently, two groups dominated bitcoin distribution: long-term holders locking in profits and miners forced to sell coins while operating under margin pressure. With LTHs now moving back into accumulation, one of those structural headwinds appears to be fading.

Why the 155-day threshold matters

The 155-day rule is not arbitrary. Historically, bitcoin held for more than five months is far less likely to be sold during short-term volatility. When coins cross that threshold, they tend to move into colder storage and behave as “conviction supply.”

The recent flip suggests that buyers from the past six months including those who purchased during the volatile October-to-November drawdown are now graduating into long-term holder status. Importantly, their accumulation is now outweighing ongoing distribution from older cohorts.

This dynamic often marks a transition phase in the market, where weak hands are replaced by stronger ones, even if price remains range-bound.

Context: the largest LTH sell-off since 2019

The reversal follows an intense period of distribution. During the roughly 36% correction that began in October, long-term holders sold more than 1 million BTC, according to onchain estimates. That was the largest sell-pressure event from this group since 2019 — a year that ultimately coincided with bitcoin’s bear market bottom near $3,200.

This was the third major LTH distribution phase of the current cycle, which began in 2023. The first occurred in March 2024 when bitcoin topped near $73,000 and over 700,000 BTC were sold. The second followed in November, when prices reached the $100,000 area and roughly 750,000 BTC were distributed.

Each of those sell-offs relieved substantial unrealized profits from the system. The recent turn toward accumulation suggests that much of that profit-taking may now be complete.

Supply dynamics improve, even as price lags

From a market-structure perspective, LTH accumulation tends to reduce liquid supply available on exchanges. While this does not guarantee immediate upside, it often dampens downside momentum by removing large, patient sellers from the order book.

Notably, this shift is happening even as bitcoin remains well below its October high near $126,000 and trades roughly 30% off peak levels. That suggests long-term investors are increasingly comfortable with current prices, despite lingering macro uncertainty and mixed sentiment across crypto markets.

Miners remain a variable, particularly if energy costs or hashprice conditions deteriorate further. However, with one major source of structural selling now easing, bitcoin’s supply-demand balance appears less fragile than it did just weeks ago.

Looking ahead

The return of long-term holder accumulation does not signal the start of a new bull phase on its own. Price may continue to consolidate as macro forces, liquidity conditions and derivatives positioning play out. Still, the shift removes a meaningful headwind that dominated much of 2025.

If accumulation persists and miner selling stabilizes, bitcoin could enter 2026 with a cleaner supply backdrop — one that historically has favored resilience over sharp drawdowns, even in the absence of strong speculative momentum.