SKN | Crypto Lagged Gold and Stocks in 2025 Why 2026 Could Become a Catch-Up Year

Crypto markets are heading into 2026 bruised and outpaced by nearly every major asset class, but on-chain data suggests the underperformance may be setting the stage for a rebound rather than signaling long-term decline.

According to analysis published this week by Santiment, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have lagged both equities and precious metals since November, even as risk appetite returned elsewhere. Gold has climbed roughly 9% since early November, the S&P 500 has gained about 1%, while Bitcoin remains down roughly 20%, trading near $88,000.

That divergence, Santiment argues, is precisely what creates the conditions for a potential catch-up phase in 2026.

Crypto’s Relative Weakness Stands Out

The last two months of 2025 have underscored how differently capital has behaved across markets. While geopolitical risk, currency debasement fears and rate-cut expectations pushed investors into gold, crypto failed to benefit from the same narrative.

Historically, Bitcoin has often moved in sympathy with risk assets or outperformed them during periods of monetary easing. This cycle has been different. Bitcoin’s inability to hold above $90,000 — despite metals making new highs and equities stabilizing — has left crypto increasingly isolated from broader market momentum.

Santiment analysts note that correlations between crypto and other major asset classes remain unusually weak, suggesting that crypto is not yet participating in the same recovery dynamics driving stocks and commodities.

Whales Step Back — A Necessary Reset?

One of the most telling signals in Santiment’s data is the behavior of large holders. Whale accumulation slowed notably in the second half of 2025, removing a key source of sustained buying pressure.

From a market-structure perspective, that pause may be constructive. Santiment highlights a recurring pattern across prior cycles: bear-to-bull transitions tend to occur when large wallets quietly accumulate while retail sentiment weakens.

Recent data suggests that long-term Bitcoin holders have stopped distributing coins for the first time in roughly six months. Holdings among this cohort fell from about 14.8 million BTC in July to roughly 14.3 million by December, but that decline has now stabilized — easing one of the year’s most persistent sell-side headwinds.

Early Signs of Capital Rotation

Some market participants believe rotation back into crypto may already be beginning. On-chain metrics from Nansen show active Bitcoin addresses rising more than 5% in the past 24 hours, even as transaction counts declined — a pattern often associated with positioning rather than speculative churn.

Former BitForex CEO Garrett Jin suggested that capital previously parked in metals may be looking for a new asymmetry. After sharp, crowded moves in gold and silver, relative value arguments increasingly favor assets that have lagged but retain high volatility and upside optionality.

In that context, crypto’s underperformance may be less a failure and more a setup.

Psychology Favors the Unloved Trade

From a behavioral standpoint, crypto entering 2026 carries the hallmark traits of an unfavored asset: muted sentiment, declining retail engagement, and skepticism driven by opportunity cost rather than structural collapse.

Historically, those conditions have often preceded periods of relative outperformance — particularly when macro liquidity stabilizes and capital seeks higher beta exposure.

Santiment frames the current moment as “late-cycle positioning before a shift,” where patience rather than momentum defines successful allocation.

Looking Ahead

Crypto does not need gold or equities to fall in order to recover. What it likely needs is time — for selling pressure to exhaust, for long-term holders to regain conviction, and for capital to rotate toward assets that have already absorbed downside.

If 2026 brings even modest improvements in liquidity conditions or renewed institutional interest, crypto’s lag could become its advantage.