SKN | MetaPlanet Nears Share-Sale Trigger as Bitcoin Treasury Strategy Reawakens

Equity Rally Brings Dilution Threshold Back Into View

Shares of Metaplanet surged 15% on Wednesday to 605 yen, placing the Tokyo-listed company within striking distance of restarting equity issuance to fund additional bitcoin purchases. Just a further 5% advance would activate the next phase of its moving strike warrant program, reopening a capital channel that has been dormant since last year’s steep drawdown.

The move comes as bitcoin trades near multi-month highs, restoring momentum to listed treasury vehicles that had been sidelined during 2025’s prolonged correction. Metaplanet’s rally marks a reversal from December lows and signals renewed investor confidence in its balance-sheet-driven accumulation strategy.

Why the Warrant Program Matters

Metaplanet paused its share-sale activity after its stock fell roughly 80% from its June peak, a decline that pushed its multiple to net asset value below one. Issuing shares under those conditions would have diluted existing holders without increasing per-share bitcoin exposure, undermining the core premise of its treasury model.

That equation has now shifted. The company’s mNAV has rebounded to approximately 1.36, its highest level since October, restoring the economics of accretive issuance. At current prices, new capital raised through equity sales would once again translate into incremental bitcoin per share rather than dilution.

The trigger point sits at 637 yen, the lower exercise price for the 23rd series of moving strike warrants held by EVO Fund. Crossing that threshold would allow up to 105 million newly issued shares to be sold into the market, with proceeds widely expected to be directed toward bitcoin purchases.

Two Tranches, One Strategic Objective

The warrant structure provides a staged path for capital deployment. After the 23rd series, a second tranche becomes available at higher prices. If Metaplanet’s shares reach 777 yen, the 24th series of warrants would activate, unlocking the potential issuance of another 105 million shares.

Together, the two tranches represent as many as 210 million shares, giving the company substantial firepower if market conditions remain supportive. Importantly, the design links issuance to rising prices, aligning shareholder outcomes with balance-sheet growth and limiting downside dilution during periods of stress.

This mechanism mirrors strategies used by other bitcoin-focused public companies, but Metaplanet stands out as Asia’s largest corporate holder of the asset, with 35,102 BTC currently on its balance sheet. That positions it as the fourth-largest publicly traded bitcoin treasury globally, and a key proxy for institutional bitcoin exposure in regional equity markets.

Investor Psychology and the Bitcoin Link

The stock’s rebound reflects more than technical levels. It highlights how investor appetite for bitcoin-linked equities tends to return rapidly once spot prices stabilize and liquidity improves. Treasury companies amplify this effect, as rising equity prices enable additional bitcoin buying, reinforcing a feedback loop between markets and balance sheets.

Still, risks remain. Equity issuance on this scale could pressure the share price if demand fails to keep pace, and any renewed volatility in bitcoin could once again push mNAV toward unattractive levels. The strategy depends heavily on sustained confidence in both the asset and the capital markets supporting it.

What Comes Next

With shares up roughly 90% from December lows, Metaplanet is approaching a pivotal zone. A clean break above 637 yen would mark the formal return of its share-funded bitcoin acquisition engine, while a stall below that level could delay issuance and test investor patience.

For now, the setup underscores how quickly capital markets can reopen for bitcoin treasury firms when price momentum returns — and how closely equity dilution thresholds are watched by investors navigating this hybrid of crypto and traditional finance.