SKN | Bitcoin Slips Deeper Into Bear Market Against Gold as Historical Patterns Point to Prolonged Weakness

Key Points

• Bitcoin has fallen roughly 55% against gold since its December 2024 peak, entering a deep relative bear market.

• The BTC-to-gold ratio remains well below its 200-week moving average, a condition that has historically persisted for years.

• Past cycles suggest further downside or extended underperformance may continue into 2026 if the pattern holds.

Bitcoin’s long-running comparison with gold has taken a decisive turn, with the cryptocurrency now firmly entrenched in what history suggests could be a prolonged bear market relative to the precious metal.

The BTC-to-gold ratio — a measure often used to assess bitcoin’s performance against the world’s oldest store of value — has fallen to around 18.46, roughly 17% below its 200-week moving average. That long-term trendline, currently near 21.9, has historically acted as a dividing line between periods of bitcoin outperformance and extended underperformance.

Gold, meanwhile, continues to push higher. Prices are hovering just below $4,900 per ounce, up roughly 12% year to date, as geopolitical tensions, central bank buying and concerns around fiscal sustainability reinforce its appeal. Bitcoin, by contrast, is only marginally positive in 2026 and remains below $89,000, struggling to regain momentum after last year’s peak.

A breakdown that echoes prior cycles

The current divergence is not limited to short-term price action. Over both one-year and five-year horizons, gold has now outperformed bitcoin. Over the past five years, bitcoin is up roughly 150%, while gold has gained about 160% — a striking reversal from earlier cycles when bitcoin dramatically outpaced traditional assets.

More telling is the behavior of the BTC-to-gold ratio around its long-term moving averages. During the 2022 bear market, the ratio fell more than 30% below its 200-week average and remained depressed for over a year. In the 2017–2018 cycle, the drawdown was even more severe, reaching roughly 84% from peak to trough.

Since topping near 40.9 in December 2024, the ratio has already declined by about 55%. While that places the current move within historical norms, it also implies that — if past cycles repeat — the adjustment may not yet be complete.

Digital gold narrative under pressure

Bitcoin’s relative weakness is increasingly challenging its “digital gold” narrative, particularly among macro-focused investors. While bitcoin still behaves as a high-beta asset tied to liquidity cycles and risk appetite, gold has reasserted its role as a defensive reserve asset during periods of monetary uncertainty.

The contrast is especially visible during episodes of rising real yields, geopolitical stress and bond market volatility — conditions under which gold has benefited while bitcoin has struggled to attract sustained safe-haven flows.

Institutional adoption has not reversed that trend. While spot bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries continue to support long-term demand, these inflows have not been sufficient to offset broader macro pressures or bitcoin’s sensitivity to tightening financial conditions.

What history suggests from here

If the BTC-to-gold ratio continues to track prior bear market behavior, it could remain below its 200-week moving average well into late 2026. Historically, sustained recoveries have only begun once the ratio stabilizes, reclaims that long-term trendline and builds a base over several months.

That does not necessarily imply a collapse in bitcoin’s dollar price. In previous cycles, extended underperformance against gold often coincided with sideways consolidation rather than outright crashes. However, it does suggest that relative strength may continue to favor gold until macro conditions shift decisively in bitcoin’s favor.

Watching the inflection point

For investors, the ratio has become a critical signal. A decisive reclaim of the 200-week average would suggest that bitcoin is once again outperforming gold on a structural basis. Until then, history argues for caution.

Bitcoin’s long-term thesis may remain intact, but in the near to medium term, the market is sending a clear message: against gold, the burden of proof has shifted back to bitcoin — and past cycles suggest patience may be required before that balance turns again.