SKN | CZ Rules Out Return to Binance, Predicts 2026 Bitcoin Supercycle

Key Points

• Changpeng Zhao says he has no plans to return to Binance, even after receiving a presidential pardon that removed prior restrictions.
• Zhao argues Binance has continued to grow under new leadership, making his return unnecessary.
• He predicts Bitcoin could enter a “supercycle” in 2026, potentially breaking the traditional four-year market cycle.

Zhao Closes the Door on a Binance Comeback

Changpeng Zhao, the co-founder and former CEO of Binance, has ruled out any return to the exchange, despite a pardon from Donald Trump that technically removed the legal barriers preventing him from doing so.

“I haven’t really needed to go back. I didn’t really want to,” Zhao said, adding that stepping away after seven years ultimately felt like the right outcome. “I think we should leave room for other strong leaders to grow.”

Zhao pleaded guilty in November 2023 to failing to maintain an effective anti–money laundering program at Binance and was later sentenced to four months in prison, alongside a ban on working at the exchange. Trump’s pardon, issued in October, sparked political scrutiny in Washington, though Trump denied having any personal relationship with Zhao.

“No Backseat Driver” for Binance

Zhao emphasized that Binance has continued to operate smoothly since his departure, pointing to what he described as strong execution under new leadership.

In a December open letter, current CEO Richard Teng and co-founder Yi He said Binance’s user base surpassed 300 million, with annual trading volumes reaching $34 trillion. Zhao said those figures reinforced his view that the exchange does not need his direct involvement.

“They don’t need a backseat driver today,” Zhao said. While he remains a shareholder, he described himself as “pretty passive,” noting that when he has advice, he shares it publicly rather than behind the scenes.

A Break From the Four-Year Cycle

Beyond Binance, Zhao turned his attention to the broader crypto market outlook, predicting that Bitcoin could enter a “supercycle” in 2026.

Historically, Bitcoin has followed a roughly four-year pattern tied to halving events, marked by new all-time highs followed by sharp drawdowns. Zhao suggested that framework may no longer hold.

“Normally, Bitcoin follows four-year cycles,” he said. “But I think this year, given the U.S. being so pro-crypto and every other country kind of following, we will probably break the four-year cycle.”

In economic terms, a supercycle refers to an extended period of outsized growth driven by structural shifts rather than short-term speculation. Zhao argued that improving regulatory clarity in the U.S. and growing global adoption could provide the foundation for such a move.

Looking Ahead

Zhao’s comments reflect a broader debate inside the crypto industry about whether Bitcoin’s maturation and institutional adoption are changing its long-established market rhythms. While prices and sentiment have weakened heading into the new year, Zhao believes the next 12 months could mark a decisive turning point.

For now, he appears content to remain on the sidelines of Binance’s day-to-day operations, focusing instead on the bigger picture of crypto’s next phase  one he believes may redefine how the market behaves altogether.