SKN | Odds Bitcoin Slips Below $65K Jump to 72% on Polymarket as Bearish Sentiment Deepens

Prediction markets turn sharply cautious on bitcoin

Prediction markets are flashing rising downside risk for bitcoin as traders brace for a prolonged period of weakness into 2026. On Polymarket, the probability that bitcoin falls below $65,000 next year climbed to 72% on Monday, following a weekend sell-off that briefly pushed prices below $75,000.

Trading volume on the contract approached $1 million, reflecting growing conviction among participants that further downside remains likely. Other heavily traded bets include bitcoin dropping below $55,000, priced at a 61% probability, and a recovery back above $100,000 by the end of the year, which still carries a 54% implied chance.

The shift marks a sharp reversal in sentiment. Bitcoin has now given back much of the rally sparked by President Donald Trump’s election victory in November 2024, with traders increasingly questioning the durability of the previous bull narrative.

Pressure builds as key holders slip underwater

The latest leg lower also carried symbolic weight for the market. Bitcoin’s drop below $75,000 briefly pushed prices under the average purchase cost of Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest publicly listed bitcoin holder, for the first time since late 2023. That development has amplified anxiety around forced selling risks if weakness persists.

While no such selling has been confirmed, the move reinforced concerns that even long-term institutional buyers are no longer comfortably insulated from volatility.

Analysts point to entrenched bear trend

Several analysts argue that the sell-off is less about short-term panic and more about an ongoing bearish structure. CryptoQuant reiterated that bitcoin has been in a bear market since November 2025, when prices fell below the 365-day moving average, a level often used to define long-term trend direction.

CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno cautioned against trying to time a bottom too early, noting that bear market lows historically take months to form rather than days or weeks.

Other commentators have questioned the assumption that bitcoin must always trend higher. Quantum Economics CEO Mati Greenspan said bitcoin was never designed primarily as a speculative asset, arguing that price appreciation is a secondary effect rather than its core purpose as a form of money independent of governments and banks.

Liquidity, not crypto, may be the real driver

Macro-focused analysts have also pointed to broader financial conditions. Global Macro Investor founder Raoul Pal said the downturn appears tied to tight U.S. liquidity rather than crypto-specific failures, suggesting that bitcoin remains highly sensitive to global dollar availability and financial conditions.

That view contrasts with longer-term forecasts from major investment firms. Late last year, Grayscale Investments projected bitcoin could reach new all-time highs above $126,000 by mid-2026, citing institutional adoption and clearer U.S. regulation.

For now, however, prediction markets suggest traders are more focused on downside protection than upside optimism, with expectations increasingly skewed toward a deeper drawdown before any sustained recovery can take hold.