SKN | Ripple CEO Sees 90% Odds of CLARITY Bill Passage by April, Signaling Potential Regulatory Turning Point

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said the proposed CLARITY Act has a “90% chance” of passing by April, framing the legislation as a decisive step toward resolving long-standing regulatory ambiguity in U.S. crypto markets. His comments arrive as digital assets trade in a macro-sensitive environment, with institutional investors closely monitoring Washington for signs of durable policy direction.

The prospect of comprehensive federal guidance could materially reshape capital allocation, custody frameworks, and token classification standards across the industry.

Market Reaction: XRP and Broader Crypto Show Measured Optimism

Following Garlinghouse’s remarks, XRP traded within the $0.60–$0.65 range, maintaining relative stability amid broader market fluctuations. Daily trading volumes remained consistent with recent averages, suggesting cautious positioning rather than speculative surge behavior.

Bitcoin hovered near the $68,000–$70,000 band, while ether consolidated around mid-cycle levels. The restrained reaction indicates that investors are factoring legislative probability into expectations without fully pricing in immediate structural change.

Historically, regulatory clarity events have reduced volatility premiums and narrowed bid-ask spreads in derivatives markets. If passage momentum strengthens, options markets may reflect lower implied volatility as headline risk declines.

Regulatory Implications: Token Classification and Institutional Access

The CLARITY bill seeks to define jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, potentially formalizing criteria distinguishing securities from commodities in the digital asset space. Such delineation would address one of the most persistent friction points for institutional allocators.

For market participants, the stakes are substantial:

• Exchange Listings: Clear definitions could reduce delisting risk and expand trading venue participation.
• Custody Standards: Institutions may gain confidence in regulated custodial frameworks.
• Capital Formation: Token issuers could operate within structured compliance pathways.

Garlinghouse’s high-probability estimate reflects growing bipartisan engagement around digital asset oversight. However, legislative timelines remain subject to negotiation, amendments, and political considerations. Even incremental progress could influence how global capital perceives U.S. competitiveness in blockchain innovation.

Investor Sentiment: From Uncertainty Discount to Policy Premium?

For years, U.S. regulatory ambiguity has imposed what some analysts describe as a “policy discount” on certain digital assets, particularly those entangled in enforcement disputes. A credible path toward statutory clarity could narrow that discount.

Institutional investors often calibrate exposure based on regulatory risk-adjusted return expectations. Improved legislative visibility may encourage longer-duration positioning rather than short-term tactical trades. Derivatives data shows stable funding rates and balanced open interest, indicating that leverage remains controlled.

Behaviorally, markets tend to respond more decisively to enacted policy than projected probability. While a 90% estimate signals confidence, allocators will likely await tangible legislative milestones before materially adjusting portfolio weights.

Looking ahead, the trajectory of the CLARITY bill will serve as a barometer for U.S. crypto policy evolution. Passage could catalyze structural shifts in capital flows, reduce compliance uncertainty, and reinforce the integration of digital assets into mainstream financial infrastructure. Conversely, legislative delays or dilution could prolong cautious positioning. For sophisticated investors, tracking committee progress, amendment language, and cross-asset volatility patterns will be essential in assessing whether regulatory clarity transitions from political projection to actionable market catalyst.