SKN | Iran Conflict Signals Bitcoin Could Surpass Gold’s Market, Bitwise Says

Key Points

• Bitcoin’s total addressable market may exceed gold.
• Geopolitics is accelerating Bitcoin’s “currency” use case.
• Iran’s crypto toll proposal highlights real-world adoption.

Bitcoin could ultimately surpass gold’s estimated $34–38 trillion market if it evolves into both a store of value and a global currency, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan. He argues that Bitcoin is no longer just competing with gold but expanding into a much larger financial role.

Iran Conflict Highlights New Use Case

Recent geopolitical developments—particularly Iran’s reported plan to charge shipping tolls in cryptocurrency for passage through the Strait of Hormuz—have reinforced Bitcoin’s potential as a neutral settlement asset.

These developments show how Bitcoin can function not just as “digital gold,” but as a currency-like tool in global trade, especially in environments where traditional financial systems are restricted or politicized.

Bitcoin as an “Apolitical” Financial Rail

Hougan emphasized that in a world where financial systems are increasingly weaponized through sanctions and restrictions, Bitcoin offers an alternative that is not controlled by any single government. This neutrality could significantly expand its use in cross-border transactions and global commerce.

Dual Role: Store of Value and Currency

Bitcoin’s long-term valuation depends on two overlapping narratives. The first is its role as a store of value competing with gold. The second, more transformative role is as a global settlement layer for payments. If both narratives materialize, current valuation models may significantly underestimate Bitcoin’s potential.

Adoption Already Growing Globally

Bitcoin is already being used as a hedge against inflation in countries experiencing currency instability, such as Argentina and Turkey. Additionally, corporations collectively hold over 1.5 million BTC, while thousands of merchants globally accept it as payment, signaling growing real-world utility.

A Shift in How Markets Value Bitcoin

The Iran conflict has revealed a key shift: Bitcoin is increasingly being priced not just as a speculative or defensive asset, but as a strategic financial tool in a fragmented global economy. This evolution suggests its total addressable market could extend far beyond gold alone.