Bitcoin Surpasses 50-Day Average, but Trend Indicators Flash Caution

Bitcoin climbed above its 50-day moving average this week, buoyed by optimism around a potential Federal Reserve rate cut. Yet analysts warn the move may be premature, with the CoinDesk Bitcoin Trend Indicator (BTI) still signaling a bearish bias as traders eye key resistance near $118,000.

Market Moves and Technical Signals

Bitcoin (BTC) rose around 2.8% to hover near $114,700, reclaiming its short-term average for the first time in nearly a month. The broader crypto market followed suit, with Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL) adding roughly 1% each.
However, the BTI — which measures momentum and volatility — remains negative, suggesting market strength has yet to translate into a confirmed uptrend. Analysts caution that the $118K–$120K range remains a critical test for renewed bullish momentum.

Rate Cuts and Risk Appetite

Expectations of a Fed rate cut next month have revived investor appetite for digital assets, as lower yields tend to favor speculative markets. Still, the macro backdrop remains fragile: U.S. inflation data is cooling slower than expected, and Treasury yields remain elevated. Traders remain cautious about chasing rallies driven purely by sentiment.

Institutional Flows and On-Chain Activity

Data from major exchanges shows modest inflows from institutional accounts, while on-chain activity has stabilized after a brief spike in long-term holder selling. Market liquidity has improved but remains thin relative to the summer’s highs.

Forward Outlook:
If Bitcoin clears the $120K barrier with conviction, technical models point to a potential move toward $130K. But failure to sustain above the 50-day average could invite renewed selling pressure — especially if macro conditions worsen before the Fed’s December meeting.