Citi Diverges on Crypto Exchange Stocks: Bullish (BLSH) Price Target Hiked, Gemini (GEMI) Cut on Slowing Volume

Citi Diverges on Crypto Exchange Stocks: Bullish (BLSH) Price Target Hiked, Gemini (GEMI) Cut on Slowing Volume

Wall Street is beginning to draw sharp distinctions within the publicly traded crypto exchange sector, moving beyond a monolithic view of the industry. In a new research note, Citigroup highlighted this divergence, reaffirming its “Buy” rating on Bullish (BLSH) while cutting its price target on a “Neutral” rated Gemini (GEMI), reflecting two very different near-term growth trajectories.

Gemini: Marketing Success Yet to Translate to Volume

Citigroup analyst Peter Christiansen reiterated a “Neutral” and “High-Risk” rating on Gemini, trimming the price target to $23 from $26. The cut comes despite what the bank calls an “impressive” marketing push around the Gemini Card and strong app download figures.

The core issue, according to the bank, is a lag in user conversion and engagement. Early data from October shows trading volumes are only “marginally above September” and remain weaker than July or August levels. Christiansen noted this performance was “disappointing” given the significant hype surrounding the launch of an XRP co-branded card ahead of Gemini’s IPO.

The analysis suggests Gemini’s strategy to build a broad user base will “likely take longer to materialize.” Despite the target cut, Citi’s valuation for Gemini still implies a 45% discount to the expected 2027 enterprise value-to-sales ratio of its main competitor, Coinbase (COIN).

Bullish: Regulatory Wins Fuel Institutional Thesis

In sharp contrast, Citi raised its price target for Bullish to $77 from $70, implying nearly 40% upside from its current price of $55.62. The bank reaffirmed its “Buy/High Risk” rating, citing “accelerating momentum.”

The primary driver for the optimistic revision is Bullish’s recent regulatory breakthrough: securing the coveted New York BitLicense. This, combined with “expanding institutional access,” positions the firm favorably, according to Christiansen. The bank’s thesis is that Bullish is at the “forefront of the next wave of crypto adoption,” specifically as improving regulatory clarity allows traditional finance players to enter the market more confidently.

This split rating from a major Wall Street institution underscores a maturing market where individual corporate execution is becoming more critical than the direction of the macro crypto trend alone. Gemini, which closed Friday’s session up 5.5% at $20.60, is now under pressure to prove it can convert its strong retail marketing funnel into active, volume-generating exchange users. Meanwhile, Bullish must capitalize on its key regulatory victories to capture the anticipated wave of institutional capital.