Crypto Markets Pause While Bitcoin Clings Near $113K Ahead of Policy Shift

The cryptocurrency market entered a subdued phase Thursday as Bitcoin hovered just above the critical $113,000 support zone amid mounting uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision and tremors in investor appetite. With the crypto-market cap largely flat and volatility tools hinting at cautious positioning, the environment remains sensitive to macro cues and shifting risk sentiment.

Market Reaction

Bitcoin (BTC) slipped to around $113,000, failing to reclaim recent levels near $116,000 and remaining stuck in a narrow range of approximately $113K–$115K. Meanwhile, Ether (ETH) traded sideways, reflecting investor hesitation across large-cap tokens. On-chain data revealed more than $358 million in short liquidations in the past 24 hours, suggesting that leveraged traders attempted to trigger a rebound. The lack of sustained momentum underscores how much of the upside may already be priced in, while macro risks such as interest-rate policy and global trade tensions loom large for digital assets.

Regulatory & Macro Implications

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce a rate cut, with markets pricing in roughly 97% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction. However, attention lies on the Fed’s forward guidance, with Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks likely to dictate how crypto assets behave in the coming weeks. A dovish message could reignite risk sentiment and lift Bitcoin toward $120,000, while a cautious or hawkish stance might drag it toward $104,000. Additionally, renewed U.S.–China trade discussions add a layer of complexity; positive developments briefly lifted BTC above $116K before institutional demand waned.

Investor Sentiment & Strategic Outlook

Despite the recent price stagnation, sentiment remains mixed but watchful. While some investors appear to be “buying the dip,” data suggests institutional flows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs remain muted compared with previous bull-run phases. The so-called “Uptober” seasonal week is nearing its end, with Bitcoin falling short of the typical ~7% gain often recorded during this period. This underscores how much the market’s psychology is tethered to broader asset-allocation decisions rather than pure crypto-specific dynamics.

Looking ahead, the crypto ecosystem will closely monitor whether Bitcoin can hold above the $113K–$114K range and whether ETF and on-chain metrics signal renewed institutional commitment. Key risks include a hawkish surprise from the Fed, worsening trade tensions, or a sharp correction in Bitcoin that triggers broader altcoin downside. Conversely, a robust recovery in risk assets or clarity on policy could catalyse a move toward $120K–$125K territory. For professional crypto investors and institutions, aligning exposure and hedges ahead of these inflection points will likely define the week ahead.