Key Points:
- BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin has the conditions to reach $1 million by 2030, citing potential monetary expansion, an AI bubble collapse and possible U.S. yield-curve control.
- Hayes currently favors Ethereum over Hyperliquid, arguing ETH offers a stronger risk-reward profile and could potentially rise threefold to fivefold in a relatively short period.
- Hayes says the competitive economics of running a crypto exchange have deteriorated sharply, while arguing that monetary policy and institutional actions matter more for Bitcoin than political statements.
Hayes Sees a Path to $1 Million Bitcoin
Arthur Hayes remains firmly bullish on Bitcoin, arguing that several macroeconomic forces could combine to drive the cryptocurrency toward a seven-figure valuation by 2030.
The BitMEX co-founder pointed to the potential collapse of the artificial intelligence investment boom, renewed large-scale money creation and the possibility of U.S. yield-curve control as catalysts that could increase liquidity and strengthen demand for scarce assets such as Bitcoin.
Hayes believes Bitcoin’s previous decline toward $58,000 may have marked a major low and expects the market to continue grinding higher from current levels.
His forecast contrasts sharply with the view of 10x Research head of research Markus Thielen, who recently argued that a $1 million Bitcoin price by 2030 is mathematically unrealistic. Thielen’s argument centers on the enormous capital inflows that would be required to move Bitcoin from its current valuation to $1 million within four years.
The disagreement highlights a fundamental divide in Bitcoin forecasting: whether future monetary expansion can generate sufficiently large capital flows to support another exponential phase of appreciation.
Ethereum Offers Better Risk-Reward
Despite his long-term conviction in Bitcoin, Hayes says Ethereum is currently his preferred cryptocurrency investment.
He considers ETH a more attractive destination for additional capital than Hyperliquid, arguing that Ethereum has greater room for a significant repricing. Hayes believes ETH could potentially deliver a threefold to fivefold gain relatively quickly.
His argument is partly based on Ethereum’s position as the foundational layer for decentralized finance. He also points to the market’s relatively negative sentiment toward the asset and its failure to decisively surpass its 2021 all-time high as evidence that expectations remain subdued.
That combination of pessimism and fundamental importance, in Hayes’ view, creates an asymmetric opportunity if Ethereum’s market narrative improves.
The recent ability of ETH to rally sharply alongside Bitcoin also reinforces the possibility of renewed capital rotation toward large-cap alternative cryptocurrencies.
Hyperliquid No Longer Offers the Same Asymmetry
Hayes is less enthusiastic about Hyperliquid than he has been in the past. His reasoning is not necessarily that the project will decline, but that its investment profile has changed as the market has become increasingly aware of its growth.
With Hyperliquid now attracting substantial attention and expectations, Hayes believes the potential upside is less asymmetric. For capital managed by Maelstrom, he sees better opportunities elsewhere in the speculative crypto market.
The distinction is important for investors: a strong project can continue appreciating while simultaneously becoming a less attractive investment if its valuation already incorporates aggressive future expectations.
Hayes Questions Political Influence on Crypto
Hayes also downplayed the influence of U.S. political leaders on cryptocurrency prices. While recent political statements have focused attention on bringing crypto businesses into the United States and advancing legislation such as the CLARITY Act, Hayes argues that monetary authorities have a much greater influence on Bitcoin’s underlying liquidity environment.
His focus is therefore on the Federal Reserve, Treasury and broader monetary policy rather than political commentary.
That view reflects Hayes’ broader investment framework, in which liquidity, monetary expansion and financial conditions are more important than short-term political headlines.
BitMEX Shutdown Marks a Different Crypto Era
Hayes also addressed the planned shutdown of BitMEX, the exchange he co-founded in 2014.
Rather than viewing the closure negatively, Hayes said he feels positive about the decision because the company is ending operations on its own terms rather than following a security breach or forced failure.
He argued that operating a crypto exchange has become increasingly difficult as infrastructure, security and technology costs rise. In his assessment, the economics are now particularly challenging for companies without the scale of major exchanges such as Binance or OKX.
The comments underscore how dramatically the crypto exchange industry has matured since Hayes helped establish one of its earliest major derivatives platforms.
Outlook
Hayes’ positioning reflects two distinct investment theses: Bitcoin remains his preferred long-term monetary asset, while Ethereum currently offers what he considers the stronger near-term risk-reward opportunity. Whether either thesis plays out will depend heavily on liquidity conditions, institutional demand and the broader trajectory of crypto adoption. For investors, the divergence between Hayes’ bullish Bitcoin forecast and his preference for ETH illustrates how valuation and expected upside can matter as much as long-term conviction.
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