Key Points
1. Bitcoin’s Hash Ribbons indicator has issued a rare long-term buy signal, historically associated with miner capitulation bottoms and major market recoveries.
2. On-chain sentiment metrics are turning bullish, with the Fear and Greed Index forming a “golden cross” for the first time since mid-2025.
3. $90,000 has emerged as a critical psychological and technical support level that bulls must defend to avoid a deeper correction.
Miner capitulation sends long-term buy signal
Bitcoin’s mining sector is once again providing a constructive signal for long-term investors. The Hash Ribbons indicator, which compares the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of the network’s hashrate, has flipped into what Capriole Investments describes as a “long-term buying opportunity.”
This signal appears when the short-term hashrate average drops below the longer-term trend, a pattern that has historically aligned with periods of miner capitulation. During these phases, inefficient miners are forced offline, selling pressure peaks, and the market often transitions toward recovery.
On-chain analytics firm On-Chain Mind echoed the assessment, calling the current reading “one of the largest Hash Ribbons signals on record.” According to the firm, miner capitulation followed by stabilization has repeatedly marked the exhaustion of forced selling rather than the start of prolonged downtrends.
The most recent comparable signal emerged in July 2025, ahead of a roughly 25% rally that carried bitcoin from around $98,000 to a new all-time high near $123,200.
Sentiment indicators begin to turn
Beyond mining data, market psychology is also shifting. The Fear and Greed Index has generated what analysts describe as a bullish “golden cross,” where the 30-day moving average of sentiment crosses above the 90-day average for the first time since May 2025.
CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ noted that this pattern has historically coincided with transitions from corrective phases into renewed uptrends. While sentiment indicators are not timing tools on their own, they often reinforce structural signals coming from on-chain data when both align.
Taken together, miner behavior and sentiment trends suggest the market may be entering a phase where downside risk is diminishing and longer-term accumulation becomes more attractive.
Why $90,000 matters
Despite improving indicators, price structure remains decisive. Bitcoin is currently trading within a narrow $90,000 to $92,000 range, making the $90,000 level a key battleground.
Market analysts widely view this zone as critical. It has acted as support in previous pullbacks, and holding it would reinforce the broader bull market structure. A decisive weekly close below $90,000, however, could shift momentum negatively.
In that scenario, traders are watching the $80,000 to $85,000 region as the next major demand zone. Further downside could expose deeper historical levels, including the April 2025 low near $74,500 and the 200-week moving average around $68,000. In a more extreme bearish extension, some measured-pattern projections point toward the mid-$50,000s as a potential bottom.
The balance of probabilities
For now, the weight of evidence favors caution with a bullish bias. Miner capitulation signals, improving sentiment, and consolidation above a major psychological level all suggest bitcoin may be forming a base rather than rolling over into a full bear phase.
Whether that base turns into the next leg higher depends largely on one factor: the market’s ability to keep $90,000 intact. If it does, the current signals may be remembered as another textbook accumulation window within a broader bull cycle.
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