SKN | Bitcoin Market Memory Shaken as Price Crashes Below Key Weekly Support in Strategy-Like Breakdown

Bitcoin’s technical landscape took a decisive turn this week as the world’s largest cryptocurrency shattered one of its most reliable long-term support structures, prompting traders and analysts to reassess what had long been considered the market’s “memory zone.”

Bitcoin
BTC: $95,866.14
fell nearly 10% in the seven days through Nov. 16, forming a large weekly red candle that closed well below the 50-week simple moving average (SMA)  the first significant break of this level since early 2023. The move signals an erosion of confidence in what had been a dominant bullish pattern and suggests the market may be entering a deeper, more structurally fragile phase.

A Support Level Loses Its Power

For nearly two years, the 50-week SMA served as a dynamic floor for bitcoin. Each time price tested the average, buyers stepped in, reinforcing the level’s status as a dependable bounce zone and propelling BTC to multiple record highs, including a peak above $126,000 earlier this year.

That memory has now been erased.

Data from TradingView shows BTC closing firmly below the average, a technical breakdown that alters the behavior expectations of market participants. Traders who once comfortably bought dips into this zone may now adopt the opposite playbook: selling strength and fading bounces.

The loss of the 50-week SMA transforms former support into immediate overhead resistance at $102,868, a level analysts say will likely attract sellers until proven otherwise. A sustained weekly close above this threshold would be required to restore bullish structure.

Strategy’s Breakdown Offers a Cautionary Parallel

The shift in bitcoin’s long-term trend comes weeks after Strategy (MSTR)  the largest publicly traded bitcoin-holding company  suffered its own technical failure. Shares of Strategy broke below their 50-week SMA in September and have since slid to $200, the lowest since October 2024.

The behavioral parallel is significant. Strategy’s price action served as an early warning signal for weakening market memory around major support levels tied to bitcoin exposure.

“Once these dynamic averages lose their authority, markets tend to recalibrate aggressively,” said one derivatives desk analyst. “The market stops rewarding dip-buyers and starts rewarding strength-sellers.”

With long-term BTC holders recently increasing their distribution and ETF inflows slowing, the breakdown aligns with broader deterioration in market structure.

Traders Reassess Their Playbooks

The invalidation of the 50-week SMA raises deeper psychological implications. For much of the past year, investors operated under a regime of structural stability  dips into well-defined zones were bought aggressively, and downside volatility was short-lived.

That behavior may now reverse. As liquidity thins across derivatives venues and macro risk remains elevated, the path of least resistance may continue lower unless a catalyst restores confidence.

Near-term technical support sits in the $93,000–$95,000 region. A failure there risks exposing BTC to a deeper test of the $89,600 liquidity pocket, according to derivatives platform Bitunix.

Looking Ahead

Bitcoin’s breach of its long-term trendline marks a psychological and structural shift in the market’s risk regime. While temporary rebounds are possible  particularly if macro conditions improve or liquidity stabilizes  traders will be watching closely for any weekly close back above the 50-week SMA.

Until then, the market appears to be transitioning into a phase where sellers hold the advantage and where momentum may continue to favor downside probes over sustained recoveries.