SKN | Bitcoin Price Eyes Sub-$80,000 Wyckoff ‘Spring’ as Markets Brace for Volatile Week

Bitcoin is entering a critical short-term phase as traders weigh technical signals pointing to a potential market bottom against a macro backdrop dominated by US monetary policy uncertainty. While spot prices have stabilized above recent lows, analysts warn that volatility could intensify before the end of the month, with some forecasts calling for a brief dip below $80,000 before a broader recovery takes shape.

Bitcoin Holds Range as Traders Await Direction

Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $88,200 during early US hours on Tuesday, remaining largely rangebound after a brief push toward $88,300. Price action has been subdued following Monday’s dip below $87,000, a move that failed to trigger follow-through selling. According to TradingView data, BTC has spent most of the week consolidating within a narrow $2,000 band, reflecting a market in pause rather than capitulation.

Keith Alan, cofounder of Material Indicators, pointed to a fresh daily buy signal from the firm’s proprietary Trend Precognition tool. He noted a “high probability” that Bitcoin would avoid revisiting Monday’s lows during the current session, provided the daily close remains above the $87,500 level. A sustained close below that threshold, however, could reopen the door to deeper downside.

Onchain and Order-Book Signals Suggest Caution, Not Panic

Onchain metrics offer a mixed but slightly constructive picture. Data from CryptoQuant shows daily price momentum on Binance at roughly $1,676, equivalent to a 1.93% gain from open to close. While positive, analysts emphasize that this does not yet constitute strong bullish momentum.

Instead, order-book dynamics point to equilibrium. Liquidity clustering on both sides of the book suggests that market participants are positioning defensively ahead of known risk events rather than aggressively accumulating or distributing. This “period of anticipation,” as CryptoQuant contributors describe it, is typical ahead of macro catalysts.

Wyckoff Analysis Flags Possible ‘Spring’ Below $80K

The more bearish short-term scenario comes from Wyckoff-based market structure analysis. Commentator MartyParty argues that Bitcoin may still need to print a so-called “spring” event—a temporary breakdown below established support that flushes remaining sellers before a trend reversal.

Under this framework, BTC could briefly trade below $80,000, potentially before the end of January. Such moves are often sharp and short-lived, designed to absorb liquidity rather than signal a sustained bear trend. Historically, Wyckoff springs tend to coincide with heightened volatility and negative sentiment, creating conditions for stronger hands to reaccumulate.

Macro Events Amplify Short-Term Risk

This week’s US Federal Reserve meeting adds another layer of complexity. While markets broadly expect rates to remain unchanged, Chair Jerome Powell’s guidance will be closely scrutinized. According to CME FedWatch data, expectations for a January rate cut remain below 3%, limiting immediate bullish catalysts for risk assets.

Traditional markets offered little directional help on Tuesday. US equity indices opened modestly higher, while gold showed signs of retesting the $5,000 level as support—an indication that macro hedging demand remains intact.

Investor Psychology at an Inflection Point

From a behavioral standpoint, Bitcoin’s current structure reflects tension between conviction and caution. Long-term holders appear unwilling to sell aggressively above $85,000, while short-term traders are reluctant to chase upside ahead of potential downside liquidity events. This stalemate often resolves through volatility rather than gradual trend continuation.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s ability to absorb a possible sub-$80,000 move—if it occurs—will be critical. A swift recovery could reinforce the view that the broader bull structure remains intact, while failure to reclaim key levels may extend consolidation into February. Either way, the coming days are likely to test both market structure and investor patience.