SKN | Bitcoin Risks Further Decline After Worst June Performance Since 2022

• Bitcoin fell 20.5% in June, marking its weakest monthly performance since June 2022.

• BTC closed below its 200-week moving average but remained above its realized price, a combination some analysts associate with unfinished bear markets.

• Stock-to-Flow creator PlanB said Bitcoin could decline toward its realized price near $52,000.

• Other analysts see strong long-term support emerging between $52,000 and $55,000 despite continued downside risks.

Bitcoin Records Its Weakest June in Four Years

Bitcoin posted its steepest monthly decline since June 2022 after falling 20.5% during June to close at $58,526, raising fresh concerns that the cryptocurrency may not have reached its current market cycle bottom.

The monthly close left Bitcoin trading below its 200-week moving average of approximately $62,000 while remaining above its realized price of roughly $52,000, a historically important onchain valuation metric that reflects the average acquisition cost of all circulating Bitcoin.

The unusual positioning has prompted renewed debate among market analysts over whether additional downside remains ahead before the next long-term recovery begins.

PlanB Sees Room for Additional Declines

Stock-to-Flow model creator PlanB argued that previous Bitcoin bear market bottoms have consistently fallen below the realized price before establishing a durable recovery.

According to the analyst, Bitcoin remains undervalued relative to its long-term value metrics but could still decline toward the $52,000 realized price before completing the current correction.

A move to that level would represent roughly a 60% decline from Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,000 reached in October.

PlanB also noted that previous bear market cycles experienced significantly deeper drawdowns, including declines of approximately 83% during the 2018 cycle and around 76% during the 2022 bear market.

Realized Price Remains a Key Indicator

Bitcoin’s realized price measures the aggregate cost basis of every coin currently in circulation by valuing each unspent transaction output (UTXO) according to the price when it last moved onchain.

The metric is widely monitored because Bitcoin has historically found long-term support near or below realized price during major bear market bottoms.

While Bitcoin currently remains above that level, analysts say historical patterns suggest the market has not yet completed the type of capitulation seen in previous cycles.

Analysts See Strong Support Near $55,000

Bitrue Research Institute Research Lead Andri Fauzan Adziima said Bitcoin’s June close below the 200-week moving average but above realized price resembles conditions seen before previous bear market lows.

He suggested that another capitulation phase could occur later in 2026 before a longer-term recovery begins, although institutional participation may reduce the severity of the decline compared with previous cycles.

Meanwhile, Bitget Wallet Research Analyst Lacie Zhang said Bitcoin appears to be approaching a historically significant support region, identifying approximately $55,000 as an area where technical and historical demand could begin stabilizing prices if additional weakness develops.

Midterm Election Pattern Draws Attention

Independent market analyst Benjamin Cowen also pointed to historical market behavior surrounding United States midterm election years.

According to Cowen, Bitcoin established major bear market bottoms during the second half of both the 2018 and 2022 midterm election years, suggesting that a similar accumulation phase could emerge later this year.

The next U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for Nov. 3, when all seats in the House of Representatives and roughly one-third of the Senate will be contested.

Outlook

Bitcoin’s worst June performance since 2022 has renewed concerns that the market may not have completed its current correction. While long-term valuation metrics indicate Bitcoin is becoming increasingly undervalued, several analysts believe historical cycle patterns leave room for another decline toward the $52,000 to $55,000 range before a sustainable recovery can begin. Institutional participation may soften the depth of any additional sell-off, but macroeconomic conditions and investor sentiment are expected to remain key drivers of Bitcoin’s next major move.