SKN | Bitcoin-to-Silver Ratio Nears Levels Last Seen During FTX Capitulation

Silver’s Surge Rekindles “Top-Calling” Mentality

In every major bull market, investors feel an almost irresistible urge to call the top. As prices accelerate and volatility spikes, comparisons to famous contrarian moments — such as Michael Burry’s 2007 housing warning — become more common.

That dynamic is now playing out in the silver market. A sharp rally, extreme intraday swings and growing media attention have pushed silver into what many traders view as a late-cycle phase, just as relative metrics versus bitcoin are flashing caution.

Bitcoin-to-Silver Ratio Signals Convergence

The bitcoin-to-silver ratio has fallen toward 780, a level that carries historical significance. It now sits below the 2017 cycle peak, when bitcoin topped near $20,000, and is approaching levels last seen in November 2022, when bitcoin bottomed near $15,500 amid the FTX collapse and broader market capitulation.

At that time, the ratio dipped toward 700, marking a moment of extreme stress for crypto relative to precious metals. The current convergence does not imply an immediate reversal, but it does suggest silver is becoming increasingly stretched relative to bitcoin.

Silver’s Parabolic Move Draws Attention

Silver has surged nearly 300% over the past year, a pace that has few historical parallels outside of late-cycle blow-off phases. On Monday alone, prices briefly spiked near $117 per ounce before reversing sharply, falling almost 15% after posting similarly sized gains earlier in the session.

Such violent intraday swings often emerge when speculative positioning becomes crowded and liquidity thins, amplifying both upside momentum and downside risk.

A History of Early-Year Silver Tops

Looking back across decades, silver’s major local and cyclical tops have consistently clustered in the first half of the calendar year. Notable examples include February 1974, January 1980 — the famous Hunt brothers blow-off near $47 — February 1983, May 1987, February 1998, April 2004, May 2006, March 2008 and April 2011, when silver peaked near $50.

This recurring pattern does not guarantee a repeat, but it does raise a historical red flag as prices accelerate early in the year while volatility expands.

What the Ratio Is Really Saying

The bitcoin-to-silver ratio approaching levels associated with prior crypto capitulation suggests the balance of risk may be shifting. In past cycles, such extremes have coincided with silver nearing exhaustion rather than bitcoin entering a prolonged decline.

If history rhymes, the current setup implies that silver may be closer to a cyclical peak, or at least a meaningful consolidation phase, while bitcoin’s relative position versus hard assets is no longer deteriorating at the same pace.

For now, the ratio is not calling an immediate reversal — but it is warning that silver’s upside may be increasingly fragile as speculative excess builds.