SKN | Bitcoin Trades Below $80,000 as Gold Nears $5,000 and Bitwise Signals End of Crypto Winter

Bitcoin’s struggle to reclaim the $80,000 level is unfolding against a broader macro backdrop marked by renewed strength in precious metals and diverging views on crypto’s near-term trajectory. While digital assets remain range-bound, gold’s sharp rebound toward $5,000 has revived debates over capital rotation, inflation hedging, and whether the latest crypto downturn is approaching exhaustion rather than deepening into a prolonged bear market.

Bitcoin Stalls as Resistance Holds

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading near $75,900 on Tuesday, according to TradingView data, after once again failing to challenge the $80,000 level, which has flipped into technical resistance. Intraday price action reflected indecision, with BTC consolidating in a narrow range following recent volatility. From a technical standpoint, the failure to reclaim $80,000 keeps short-term momentum neutral-to-bearish, even as downside selling pressure appears contained above the mid-$70,000 zone.

Equities offered little directional clarity. US stocks reacted unevenly to earnings, with PayPal shares dropping nearly 20% after a revenue miss, reinforcing a risk-sensitive environment that has limited speculative appetite across crypto markets.

Gold’s Rebound Reshapes the Macro Narrative

While Bitcoin moved sideways, gold staged a decisive rebound. Spot gold (XAU/USD) climbed back to roughly $4,970, more than $500 above Monday’s local lows, as buyers stepped in aggressively after last week’s sell-off. Silver followed suit, rising over 11% on the day after briefly dipping near $71 at January’s monthly close.

This divergence has renewed focus on the long-observed rotational dynamic between Bitcoin and gold. Historically, extended gold rallies have often preceded renewed strength in Bitcoin, reinforcing the “digital gold” narrative during later phases of macro reflation. Trader Jelle noted that gold has effectively “run the show” for roughly 14 months, arguing that such phases have previously coincided with Bitcoin eventually regaining leadership.

Not all analysts agree. Some market participants warn that Bitcoin’s underperformance versus gold could persist, with critics pointing out that this cycle has yet to deliver decisive new highs for BTC when measured in gold terms.

Bitcoin Versus Gold: Structural Debate Intensifies

The BTC/gold ratio has become a focal point for longer-term strategists. Skeptics argue that capital rotation toward traditional safe havens could erode Bitcoin’s relative value over time, particularly if macro uncertainty continues to favor physical assets. More bearish forecasts suggest Bitcoin could lose a substantial portion of its purchasing power against gold in coming years.

Supporters counter that Bitcoin’s current consolidation reflects maturation rather than structural weakness. They point to expanding institutional access, deeper liquidity, and the normalization of spot Bitcoin ETFs as factors that could reassert Bitcoin’s role once macro conditions stabilize.

Bitwise CIO Sees Crypto Winter Nearing Its End

Adding a more constructive outlook, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan argued that the current “crypto winter” is closer to its end than many investors believe. In his view, the downturn effectively began in January 2025, with last year’s apparent strength largely driven by spot Bitcoin ETF inflows rather than organic market expansion.

Hougan framed today’s sentiment—characterized by fatigue, pessimism, and reduced trading enthusiasm—as typical of late-stage downturns. Importantly, he emphasized that recent price declines have not materially altered crypto’s long-term fundamentals, suggesting the market may be in a basing phase rather than the early stages of a deeper drawdown.

Market Psychology and the Road Ahead

From a behavioral perspective, Bitcoin’s current range reflects a standoff between long-term holders reluctant to sell below perceived fair value and short-term traders waiting for confirmation of a new trend. Gold’s resurgence has temporarily captured macro attention, but any cooling in precious metals could redirect speculative flows back toward digital assets.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim $80,000 remains a key inflection point. A sustained move above resistance could reinforce the view that the worst of the downturn has passed, while continued rejection may prolong consolidation into the next quarter. For now, investors are navigating a market defined less by panic and more by patience—often a prerequisite for the next directional shift.