SKN | Bitcoin’s Next Big Test Is $100,000 as Asia Markets Turn Cautious

Key Points

1. Bitcoin is consolidating near $95,000 after a volatile rally, with traders expecting a test of $100,000 but doubting a clean breakout.
2. Prediction markets assign a 54% probability to Bitcoin touching $100,000 in January, while upside odds fall sharply beyond that level.
3. Ether is holding firm near $3,300, supported by yield demand, as Bitcoin’s surge appears driven by short covering and ETF inflows rather than a macro re-rating.

Bitcoin steadies after a violent rally

Bitcoin traded close to $95,000 during early Asian hours, digesting sharp gains from earlier in the week as volatility cooled and price action narrowed. The world’s largest cryptocurrency briefly spiked above $97,000 during U.S. trading before fading back, reinforcing the view that the market is now in a testing phase rather than the start of a sustained breakout.

The $100,000 level has emerged as the market’s primary near-term focus. Traders broadly expect Bitcoin to probe that psychological threshold, but conviction beyond it remains limited. Price behavior over the past 48 hours suggests that resistance is building as profit-taking replaces forced buying.

Prediction markets temper upside expectations

Data from prediction markets reflect this cautious optimism. Contracts tracking Bitcoin’s January price path imply a 54% probability of a move to $100,000, making it the most likely outcome by a wide margin. However, expectations drop sharply above that point, with probabilities falling to around 22% for $105,000 and less than 10% for $110,000.

At the same time, downside risks have eased. The implied probability of a drop to $85,000 has declined to roughly 15%, suggesting traders see reduced tail risk after the recent rally. The skew in expectations points to momentum-driven tests rather than a regime shift toward aggressive upside pricing.

Short squeeze, not macro repricing

Market participants characterize the latest move as largely mechanical. Liquidity providers note that Bitcoin’s jump through the mid-$90,000s was fueled by a short squeeze, with bearish positions forced to cover as volatility spiked and options skews flipped more bullish.

Exchange-traded fund inflows reinforced the move. Roughly $800 million flowed into Bitcoin-linked ETFs during the rally, the strongest inflow streak in about three months, providing a steady bid beneath spot prices. Improved order-book depth on the buy side further amplified the upward push.

Despite the strength, traders caution that the rally lacked a broader macro catalyst. Without a fresh shift in interest-rate expectations or a geopolitical shock, many desks view the price action as tactical rather than structural.

Ether shows relative resilience

Ether continued to outperform on a relative basis, holding near $3,300 even as Bitcoin stalled. Demand for yield-linked strategies and staking-related exposure has helped anchor ETH prices, while funding rates remain stable and leverage appears contained.

The divergence reinforces a common theme in recent sessions: Bitcoin is attracting fast-money flows tied to positioning and ETFs, while Ether is benefiting from more durable demand linked to on-chain yield and capital efficiency.

Cross-asset backdrop remains mixed

Outside crypto, risk sentiment was uneven. Asian equity markets traded mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei underperforming regional peers. Gold and silver edged lower as geopolitical fears eased and U.S. policy uncertainty receded, reducing immediate demand for traditional safe havens.

A test, not a breakthrough yet

For now, Bitcoin appears locked in a consolidation phase between the mid-$90,000s and the $100,000 mark. A decisive break higher would likely require broader participation, stronger macro tailwinds, or sustained institutional inflows. Until then, traders are treating $100,000 less as a finish line and more as the market’s next stress test.