SKN | Circle Stock Rallies 44% in 90 Days as USDC Enters the AI Payments Race: Is CRCL Undervalued?

Key Points:

• Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) announced a collaboration with Proof to connect verified digital identity with automated purchases settled in USDC.
• CRCL gained 4.47% in one day, 12.77% over seven days and 44.27% over 90 days, despite a negative 28.11% one-year total shareholder return.
• The partnership highlights a potential growth avenue in AI-driven commerce, although commercial adoption, execution and valuation remain important uncertainties.

Circle Internet Group is drawing renewed investor attention as stablecoin infrastructure expands beyond conventional crypto trading and into automated digital commerce. Its collaboration with identity platform Proof links verified credentials to machine-executed purchases, with payments settled in USDC, positioning Circle at the intersection of digital dollars, identity verification and artificial intelligence.

The announcement comes amid a sharp recovery in Circle shares over recent months. According to the supplied market figures, CRCL gained 44.27% over 90 days, even as its one-year total shareholder return remained down 28.11%. The contrast raises a key question for investors: does the emerging market for automated payments support further growth, or has the recent rally already priced in much of that potential?

Circle and Proof Connect Identity Verification With USDC Payments

The collaboration addresses a practical challenge in AI-driven commerce: merchants may be able to receive payments from automated agents but still lack reliable evidence of who authorized a purchase. Circle and Proof plan to demonstrate a transaction in which an AI agent presents a verified identity credential through Proof’s x401 protocol and pays the merchant in USDC using Circle’s x402 payment protocol and Circle Agent Wallet.

The two protocols serve different purposes. x401 enables a website to request evidence of identity and authorization, while x402 communicates payment requirements. Together, they are designed to connect identity verification and settlement within one automated checkout process.

The proposed model also supports selective disclosure. Rather than receiving an entire identity document, a merchant can verify the relevant credential and retain signed evidence of purchase authorization. This could help businesses manage fraud and disputes as automated transactions become more common.

CRCL’s Recent Rally Contrasts With Its One-Year Return

Circle’s reported share-price performance shows a marked improvement in short-term momentum. A 4.47% daily gain and 12.77% weekly increase indicate growing buying interest, while the 44.27% 90-day advance points to a more substantial recovery over the quarter.

However, the negative 28.11% one-year total shareholder return provides a different perspective. It suggests that the recent rebound has not erased the losses measured over the longer period. These figures cover different time horizons and should not be interpreted as proof that the stock is undervalued.

For investors assessing CRCL, the distinction between momentum and valuation is important. A rising share price can reflect improving expectations, but establishing whether a company is attractively valued requires examining revenue growth, profitability, competitive positioning and the price paid for future earnings.

AI-Driven Commerce Could Expand Stablecoin Use

The strategic opportunity extends beyond a single demonstration. If AI agents increasingly search for services, place orders and make payments autonomously, businesses may need payment infrastructure that operates programmatically and settles digital-dollar transactions efficiently.

USDC could play a role in this market because it is designed to maintain a value of one U.S. dollar. For Circle, broader adoption of agent-based payments could create additional use cases for its stablecoin and associated infrastructure. The companies have also described a potential model in which merchants pay identity providers in USDC for individual verification checks.

Still, a demonstration does not establish widespread commercial adoption. The scale of future demand will depend on integration costs, merchant participation, customer authorization safeguards, regulatory requirements and whether businesses see measurable benefits from automated transactions.

What Investors Should Monitor Next

The key test for Circle is whether partnerships and technical demonstrations translate into sustained usage, transaction activity and financial results. Investors will also need to weigh competitive pressures, regulatory developments affecting stablecoins and the possibility that elevated expectations are already reflected in CRCL’s recent recovery.

Circle’s Proof collaboration offers a concrete example of how USDC could serve emerging payment applications beyond traditional crypto markets. Whether that opportunity justifies further valuation gains will depend less on the announcement itself than on adoption, execution and the company’s ability to convert infrastructure into durable economic value.