SKN | Could 4 Million Bitcoin Bought Above $85,000 Cap the Next Market Recovery?

Key Points:

• Approximately 4 million BTC acquired between $85,000 and $118,000 are held by long-term investors who are currently sitting on unrealized losses, according to Glassnode.
• More than half of long-term holder coins were reportedly acquired above Bitcoin’s current market price, creating a potential source of selling pressure during a recovery.
• The $85,000–$118,000 range could become an important area to monitor as investors assess the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and Bitcoin’s ability to regain higher price levels.

Bitcoin’s recovery could face a significant supply overhang as investors who accumulated the cryptocurrency at higher prices reassess their positions. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode estimates that approximately 4 million BTC were acquired between $85,000 and $118,000 by long-term holders who are now sitting on unrealized losses, raising the possibility that a rebound toward those levels could encounter renewed selling pressure.

The findings arrive amid a market environment in which monetary policy expectations and investor positioning remain important influences on digital assets. While a return to previous price levels could improve sentiment, the distribution of acquisition prices suggests that Bitcoin’s recovery may depend partly on how investors respond when their holdings approach breakeven.

Four Million BTC Create a Potential Supply Overhang

According to Glassnode’s analysis, the affected group represents approximately 4 million Bitcoin purchased at prices ranging from $85,000 to $118,000. Most of these coins were acquired during 2025, leaving their holders exposed to unrealized losses while Bitcoin trades below their original purchase prices.

Glassnode defines long-term holders as investors holding coins for more than 155 days. This classification helps analysts examine how longer-duration holders behave through different market cycles, although it does not establish that every investor in the group follows the same strategy or has identical financial circumstances.

The concentration of coins above the current market price matters because a recovery could bring investors closer to their acquisition costs. Some may choose to sell to reduce exposure or recover capital, potentially increasing the amount of Bitcoin offered to the market. However, the size of the holdings alone does not determine how much will actually be sold or when selling might occur.

Breakeven Levels Could Shape Investor Behavior

Investors often respond differently when an asset moves from substantial losses toward its original purchase price. For holders who have spent months below breakeven, a recovery can create an opportunity to exit positions without realizing the same level of loss. If enough participants act similarly, their selling can absorb buying demand and slow upward momentum.

Glassnode’s note indicates that more than half of all long-term holder coins were acquired above Bitcoin’s current price. This distribution suggests that a large portion of long-term-held supply may remain sensitive to price recovery. The $85,000 threshold is therefore a level worth monitoring, while the broader $85,000–$118,000 range represents a wider zone in which potential changes in holder behavior could become relevant.

Still, acquisition cost is only one factor in a selling decision. Investors may retain their holdings because of longer-term expectations, tax considerations, liquidity needs or portfolio strategies. On-chain data can identify potential pressure points, but it cannot reliably predict the timing or scale of future transactions by itself.

Federal Reserve Policy Adds a Macro Dimension

Glassnode published its assessment on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, placing Bitcoin’s holder distribution alongside a key macroeconomic event. Changes in interest-rate expectations can influence risk appetite, liquidity conditions and demand for assets such as cryptocurrencies, although the direction and magnitude of any market response are not guaranteed.

The interaction between monetary policy and on-chain supply will be important to watch. A stronger recovery in demand could help absorb selling from investors approaching breakeven. Conversely, weak demand could leave Bitcoin more vulnerable if holders begin distributing coins as prices return to their acquisition ranges.

In the coming sessions, investors will be watching the Federal Reserve’s policy signals, Bitcoin’s ability to sustain a recovery and changes in long-term holder activity. The estimated 4 million BTC represents potential selling pressure rather than a confirmed wave of sales. Whether it becomes a meaningful constraint will depend on actual distribution behavior, incoming demand and broader market conditions.