SKN | Could XRP Be Repeating the Pattern Behind Its 650% Rally?

Key Points:

• XRP is trading near $1.40, up roughly 35% over the past month, with its current chart structure resembling the setup that preceded a 650% advance in 2024.
• Technical projections identify potential levels around $1.30, $1.90, $2.80 and $3.40, while a separate Fibonacci analysis points to approximately $2.13.
• August spot activity reached a six-month high, with Binance recording more than $7.26 billion in XRP volume and roughly 500 million XRP leaving its reserves.

XRP is attracting renewed attention as its current price structure begins to resemble the technical formation that preceded a roughly 650% rally in 2024. The comparison is drawing interest as the token trades around $1.40 after a 35% monthly advance, although elevated trading activity and declining exchange reserves provide supportive context rather than proof that history will repeat.

XRP Recreates a Familiar Technical Structure

The current setup is notable because XRP has followed a sequence that analysts say resembles its 2024 structure. The token moved through the $1.10-$1.00 area before recovering toward successive levels around $1.30, $1.90, $2.80 and $3.40.

XRP remains well below its 2025 peak near $3.65, but its recovery from below $1 earlier this summer has materially changed the technical picture. The comparison with 2024 is therefore based on market structure rather than identical price levels or timing. Historical chart formations can provide a framework for assessing momentum, but they do not establish a predetermined outcome.

Fibonacci Levels Point to $2.13

Additional technical analysis has focused on XRP’s recent correction. Trader CW8900 noted that the pullback reached approximately the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement before XRP recovered and cleared the 0.618 level.

Under that framework, the next major extension is around $2.13, corresponding to the 1.618 Fibonacci level. Such targets are widely followed by technical traders because they provide reference points for assessing whether an existing trend is extending or losing momentum.

However, the broader structure remains contested. Some analysts characterize the latest recovery as part of an incomplete corrective pattern rather than the beginning of a sustained advance, emphasizing that XRP still needs to establish stronger confirmation above key resistance levels.

On-Chain Activity Strengthens the Market Signal

On-chain data provide a second dimension to the technical argument. XRP’s spot trading volume reached a six-month high in August, with Binance alone recording more than $7.26 billion in activity. Upbit and Bithumb also showed elevated trading volumes, indicating that the increase was not confined to a single exchange.

At the same time, roughly 500 million XRP left Binance during the broader period examined, reducing the exchange’s monthly average reserves to levels last seen in early 2024. Lower exchange balances can reduce the amount of immediately available supply, although exchange outflows alone cannot establish that tokens have been accumulated or removed permanently from potential selling channels.

Pattern Recognition Still Faces a Major Test

The combination of rising spot activity and declining exchange reserves gives XRP’s current setup more substance than a chart comparison alone. Yet the evidence remains mixed enough that investors should distinguish between technical similarity and fundamental confirmation.

XRP’s ability to sustain levels above $1.40, maintain elevated spot volumes and attract continued demand will determine whether the current formation develops into something resembling the 2024 move. The market will also need to absorb broader crypto volatility, changes in Bitcoin’s direction and evolving institutional demand before a historical pattern can be considered more than a technical analogy.

For crypto investors and institutions, the critical question is therefore not whether XRP can mechanically repeat its previous 650% rally, but whether the conditions supporting that comparison are strengthening. Sustained spot demand, declining exchange reserves and confirmation above successive technical resistance levels would provide stronger evidence of a durable trend, while a failure to hold recent gains would weaken the historical-pattern thesis.