SKN | Credit Unions Reject Stablecoin Rewards as Bitcoin Traders Brace for U.S. Inflation Signal

Crypto markets entered the new trading week balancing regulatory clarity against macroeconomic uncertainty, as U.S. credit unions joined banks in opposing interest-bearing stablecoins while traders turned their focus to upcoming inflation data for directional cues. The competing forces of tightening oversight and easing monetary expectations have left digital assets modestly higher, but conviction remains measured ahead of key economic releases.

Bitcoin was trading near $92,000 in late U.S. hours, while ether hovered around $3,130, both up roughly 1%–2% over 24 hours. The broader market showed selective strength, underscoring a cautious but constructive tone.

Regulation: Stablecoin Rewards Face Pushback

At the regulatory level, the debate over stablecoin incentives took a decisive turn. U.S. credit unions aligned with major banks in rejecting the idea that holders of payment stablecoins should earn interest-like rewards. Their stance gained traction on Capitol Hill as Senate lawmakers released an updated draft of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, explicitly prohibiting digital asset service providers from paying “any form of interest or yield” solely for holding permitted payment stablecoins.

The proposed framework divides digital assets into three categories: digital commodities such as bitcoin and ether under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), investment contract assets regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and payment stablecoins subject to tailored rules. For traditional financial institutions, banning yield on stablecoins preserves a clear distinction between deposits and digital cash equivalents, limiting competition with bank funding models.

Crypto-native firms, however, argue that such restrictions could stifle innovation and reduce consumer choice, particularly as tokenized cash products gain traction globally.

Market Impact: Clarity Versus Constraints

Despite the apparent regulatory constraint, market participants appear to be focusing on the broader implications of legislative progress. Prediction markets currently assign roughly an 80% probability that the Clarity Act will be signed into law this year, a signal that long-running regulatory ambiguity may finally ease.

Matthew Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, likened the bill’s progress to a seasonal turning point for crypto markets, arguing that passage could unlock new all-time highs for bitcoin and the broader digital asset complex. The logic is straightforward: institutional capital tends to follow regulatory certainty, even when the rules themselves are conservative.

This optimism has helped support prices even as stablecoin-related yield opportunities face tighter controls.

Crypto Markets: Selective Strength Emerges

Price action across digital assets reflected guarded optimism. The top 10 tokens by market capitalization—including bitcoin, ether, XRP and solana—posted gains of 1%–2% over the past day. Beyond large caps, pockets of risk appetite emerged, with tokens such as XMR, IP and MYX rising more than 15%. The CoinDesk 80 Index advanced approximately 3%, signaling broader participation without a full risk-on surge.

Still, traders are reluctant to commit aggressively. Liquidity remains adequate, but positioning suggests markets are waiting for confirmation from macro data rather than front-running outcomes.

Macro Focus: Inflation as the Next Catalyst

Attention is now firmly on U.S. December consumer price index data, due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Consensus estimates on FactSet call for a 2.6% year-on-year increase, slightly below November’s 2.7%. A softer reading could reinforce expectations for eventual Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially lifting bitcoin alongside equities and other risk assets.

Conversely, a hotter-than-expected print could strengthen the U.S. dollar and pressure crypto prices by dampening rate-cut hopes. JPMorgan’s recent shift—no longer forecasting a rate cut this year and pointing instead to a possible increase in borrowing costs in 2027—adds to the stakes surrounding the data.

Looking Ahead

The intersection of regulatory clarity and macroeconomic signals is likely to define crypto market direction in the weeks ahead. While restrictions on stablecoin rewards may temper some segments of the ecosystem, progress on comprehensive legislation could unlock deeper institutional participation. For traders and long-term investors alike, inflation data and policy follow-through will determine whether the current consolidation gives way to renewed momentum or extended caution.