SKN | Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer Sees Bitcoin Bull Market Returning With $300,000 2029 Target

Key Points:

• Fidelity Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer says Bitcoin’s cyclical bull market may have resumed after BTC held around $60,000, with a $300,000 target for 2029.
• Timmer’s Bitcoin-to-gold indicator has recently turned positive after reaching deeply negative territory, which he views as consistent with patterns around previous cycle lows.
• The thesis comes as institutional investors increasingly analyze Bitcoin alongside gold, although Fidelity’s own research emphasizes that Bitcoin’s future path depends on adoption, network strength and macroeconomic conditions.

Bitcoin is entering a new phase of the market cycle according to Fidelity Investments Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer, who says the cryptocurrency has potentially established a cyclical floor after holding the $60,000 level. Timmer’s framework points toward a $300,000 Bitcoin price by 2029, placing greater emphasis on Bitcoin’s relationship with gold, adoption and long-term network growth rather than short-term market momentum.

Timmer’s Power-Law Framework Points to a New Cycle

Timmer said Bitcoin’s “power law” model continues to suggest that a new cyclical bull market is underway after BTC held around $60,000. His framework places a potential $300,000 target in 2029, which would represent more than three times Bitcoin’s current price near $84,000.

Bitcoin previously reached an all-time high of approximately $126,198 in 2025 and remains roughly one-third below that level. The recovery from the 2026 lows has therefore been significant, but the asset has yet to establish a new record.

Fidelity’s broader research has previously described Bitcoin as a fixed-supply digital asset with characteristics that overlap with gold, venture investments and network goods. The firm’s research emphasizes that Bitcoin’s long-term value depends partly on the rate of adoption and the robustness of its underlying network.

Bitcoin-to-Gold Indicator Turns Positive

Another component of Timmer’s analysis is his Bitcoin-to-gold indicator, which measures Bitcoin’s relative performance against gold through a standardized score. According to the source material, the indicator recently turned positive at approximately 6% after reaching deeply negative territory near 100%.

The shift is relevant because gold and Bitcoin increasingly occupy overlapping roles in institutional discussions about scarce assets and portfolio diversification. Bitwise has similarly argued that institutions are increasingly evaluating the two assets within a broader macro framework rather than treating Bitcoin solely as a technology-driven asset.

That comparison does not mean Bitcoin behaves like gold in every market environment. Bitcoin remains considerably more volatile and is more sensitive to liquidity, risk appetite and changes in digital-asset positioning.

Institutional Adoption Changes the Market Structure

The current cycle also differs from earlier Bitcoin markets because institutional access has expanded significantly. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have created a regulated channel for traditional investors, while custody and trading infrastructure has continued developing.

Fidelity’s own 2026 research notes that several historical factors can contribute to new crypto bull markets, including the four-year Bitcoin cycle, monetary policy, regulatory developments, new use cases and institutional adoption. The firm also cautions that the presence of these factors does not guarantee that a new bull market will occur.

This distinction is important for investors assessing Timmer’s $300,000 scenario. A long-term model can describe a potential trajectory without establishing a reliable short-term price path.

What Would Need to Happen Next?

Bitcoin’s ability to sustain prices above key support levels will remain an important test of the current cycle thesis. Investors will also monitor ETF flows, institutional allocations, liquidity conditions, adoption metrics and the relationship between Bitcoin and traditional macro assets.

Timmer’s $300,000 2029 target is a model-based projection, not a guaranteed outcome. For sophisticated investors, the more immediate question is whether Bitcoin can continue converting its recent recovery into durable institutional demand while maintaining network adoption. The next several quarters should provide more evidence about whether the current rebound represents a lasting change in market structure.