SKN | Is XRP Bullish Again, or Is This Just a Relief Rally Before Another Sell-Off?

XRP has staged a dramatic recovery from its August cycle low, but the speed of the rebound and subsequent reversal have left investors questioning whether a durable trend change is underway. XRP fell to $0.9877 on August 17, surged about 68% to above $1.66 four days later, and then briefly dropped to $1.44, highlighting the unusually high volatility surrounding the token as broader crypto markets recover.

XRP Rebounds Sharply but Faces Immediate Resistance

XRP entered August under significant pressure, trading between approximately $0.98 and $1.18 during the first 18 days of the month. The trend changed on August 19, when XRP moved back above several major moving averages and began accelerating higher. From August 19 through midday on August 22, the token gained nearly 45%, while its market capitalization expanded from roughly $62 billion to almost $95 billion.

Yet the subsequent flash crash demonstrated that buyers have not established complete control. XRP fell to $1.44 within minutes after leveraged long positions were forcibly closed across the broader cryptocurrency market. The token later stabilized around $1.47, leaving it well below the $1.66 peak and demonstrating how quickly momentum can reverse when leverage builds during a rapid rally.

Key Price Levels Could Define the Next Direction

At around $1.47, XRP is approaching a critical technical area. The first resistance sits near $1.50, a level that has repeatedly attracted sellers. A sustained move above that threshold would bring the $1.65 to $1.70 zone back into focus, representing approximately 12% to 16% upside from current levels.

Beyond that range, XRP faces stronger resistance around $1.83, corresponding to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement between its 52-week low of $0.9877 and 52-week high of $3.18. On the downside, $1.40 and $1.38 are important near-term support areas. A break below $1.31 would weaken the recovery structure and expose the token to a potential move toward $1.20.

CLARITY Act Remains the Central Catalyst

Regulatory developments remain a major factor behind XRP’s renewed momentum. The CLARITY Act has become a central catalyst because the legislation would establish a federal framework for digital-asset market structure and clarify the regulatory treatment of assets such as XRP.

President Donald Trump’s recent support for the legislation helped strengthen market sentiment during XRP’s August rally. The next major event is the Senate’s scheduled September 15 cloture vote. The motion requires 60 votes to advance, making the vote an important test of whether the legislation can progress through the Senate.

For XRP, the timing is significant. The token has already demonstrated that regulatory headlines can produce substantial price movements, but expectations can also become embedded in market prices before an actual legislative outcome. That creates a potential volatility risk if the political process fails to meet market expectations.

The Next Three Weeks May Set the Trend

The distinction between a genuine reversal and a relief rally will likely become clearer over the next several weeks. Holding above $1.47 while reclaiming $1.50 and eventually $1.65 would strengthen the case that buyers are rebuilding momentum. Conversely, repeated failures at resistance followed by a break below $1.38 or $1.31 would suggest that the recent surge was primarily a temporary recovery from oversold conditions.

With the September 15 vote approaching, XRP faces a period in which regulatory expectations, broader crypto liquidity and leveraged positioning could all influence price action. The key question is whether the token can build a stable base before the catalyst arrives, rather than relying solely on headline-driven momentum.