SKN | XRP Falls to $1.21 Despite $540 Million Binance Outflows as ETF Demand Remains Weak

Key Points:

• Approximately 418.5 million XRP left Binance on November 4, representing the exchange’s largest single-day outflow in nine months, according to analyst Darkfost.
• Despite the withdrawals, XRP declined 7.66% over 24 hours to $1.21, while U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded zero net flows for three consecutive sessions.
• The $1.21 level represents an important technical support area. A sustained recovery above $1.34 would strengthen the case for a potential bottom, while a break below $1.21 could expose the $1.11 region.

XRP is facing a disconnect between exchange supply movements and actual market demand. Approximately $540 million worth of the cryptocurrency left Binance in a single day, marking its largest withdrawal event in nine months. However, the price declined to $1.21 rather than strengthening, while U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded funds recorded no net inflows for three consecutive sessions. The divergence raises questions about whether the reduction in exchange-held supply is being matched by sufficient buying interest.

Largest Binance Outflow in Nine Months Fails to Support XRP Price

On November 4, approximately 418.5 million XRP left Binance, according to analyst Darkfost. The movement exceeded the 315 million XRP withdrawn on October 29, the day associated with the reported $6.3 billion Binance security incident. It represented the largest single-day XRP outflow from the exchange in nine months.

The withdrawals occurred shortly after XRP recovered above $1.30 and one day after the U.S. midterm elections. At the same time, wallets holding at least 1 million XRP reached a 2026 high, suggesting increased concentration among large holders.

Large exchange outflows can reduce the amount of cryptocurrency immediately available for sale on trading platforms. However, they do not automatically indicate accumulation or establish that investors are preparing to hold their assets for the long term. Some transfers may reflect internal exchange movements or changes in custody arrangements. Consequently, the significance of the November 4 withdrawals depends on whether they are followed by sustained demand.

Spot XRP ETFs Show No Immediate Institutional Buying Response

ETF activity provides another measure of demand. Data from SoSoValue showed that U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded zero net flows on November 3, 4 and 5. The absence of new net investment included November 4, when Binance experienced the substantial XRP withdrawals.

The slowdown had already become visible in October. Spot XRP ETFs attracted approximately $18.8 million in net inflows during the month, considerably below September’s $121.4 million. October therefore represented the weakest monthly inflow total since March, when the funds recorded net outflows.

The combination of exchange withdrawals and stagnant ETF flows presents a mixed picture. While fewer XRP tokens may be immediately available on Binance, the lack of fresh ETF investment suggests that one important channel of institutional demand has not yet strengthened. Exchange supply movements alone cannot establish whether the broader market is accumulating XRP.

$1.21 Support Becomes Critical for XRP’s Short-Term Structure

From a technical perspective, analyst More Crypto Online identified $1.21 as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, an area from which XRP had previously rebounded. The token subsequently advanced toward resistance near $1.34 but failed to break through, weakening the recovery attempt.

With XRP returning to $1.21, the same technical level is now being tested again. According to the analyst, a more convincing bottom would require the token to establish a higher low before moving above $1.34. The latest assessment indicated that the rebound had lacked sufficient momentum to confirm a reversal.

A sustained move below $1.21 could shift attention toward the $1.11 area, corresponding to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement identified on the analyst’s chart. These levels represent technical reference points rather than guaranteed price targets.

Demand Confirmation Remains the Missing Element

XRP’s latest market behavior illustrates why exchange outflows should be evaluated alongside price action, ETF activity and broader investor positioning. The November 4 withdrawals may indicate a reduction in immediately available exchange supply, but the subsequent decline demonstrates that this development has not translated into stronger price performance.

Over the coming sessions, investors will be watching whether Binance outflows continue or prove to be an isolated event. A return of positive ETF flows, combined with a higher technical low and a sustained break above $1.34, would provide stronger evidence of improving demand. Until those conditions emerge, XRP’s recovery remains uncertain, with the $1.21 support level serving as an important reference for the market’s next direction.