Bitcoin () is consolidating in a narrow weekend range around the $102,000 level, but the deceptively flat price action masks a high-stakes technical battle. As traders await a critical weekly close, a bearish “death cross” pattern is forming on the daily chart for the fourth time this cycle. This, combined with persistent whale selling and uncertainty over U.S. macro triggers, has placed the market at a pivotal inflection point, with key support levels on the line.
Key Moving Averages and Fibonacci Levels in Focus
Market participants are zeroed in on several key price levels that could determine the bull market’s fate. Trader “Titan of Crypto” identified $103,500 as the key level for the weekly close, based on Fibonacci retracement. While a close below it isn’t “dramatic,” a confirmed breakdown next week “would signal the bull market is likely over.”
Simultaneously, the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $100,940, is being watched as a critical line of defense. Analysts have warned that a weekly close below this long-term average would be seen as a significant sign of weakness, potentially opening the door to a test of lower support zones.
The ‘Death Cross’ and Diverging Sentiment
Adding to the technical pressure is the approach of the bull cycle’s fourth “death cross” on the daily chart, a pattern where the short-term 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses below the long-term 200-day SMA. While this is a classically bearish signal, analysis from trader “SuperBro” noted that the previous three occurrences this cycle ultimately led to a “reversion to the mean and a sustained bottom.”
This technical uncertainty is being met with clear on-chain pressure. According to entrepreneur Ted Pillows, “institutional demand has gone and OG whales are selling,” a trend of distribution from long-term holders that has persisted throughout 2025. This has led to speculation that the price could move lower to test deeper support, as expectations for a positive macro catalyst over the weekend were not met.
Macro Triggers Remain on the Sideline
Beyond the charts, the market is looking to Washington for its next major catalyst. CryptoQuant contributor Cas Abbe suggested that an end to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown—which has been increasingly problematic for the economy—could lead to an “expansion” in risk assets and mark the end of a “manipulation” phase for Bitcoin.
Furthermore, a looming U.S. Supreme Court decision on international trade tariffs is also on the radar. An expected ruling to strike down the tariffs would likely provide an “instant boost” to equities, a move that would almost certainly provide a tailwind for Bitcoin given the high correlation.
Bitcoin enters the new week in a precarious state of equilibrium. The price is currently holding above critical long-term support, but the formation of a daily death cross and persistent whale selling are creating significant headwinds. How the market navigates these technical pressures, and whether a resolution to the U.S. government shutdown or tariff issue provides a much-needed macro boost, will be critical in determining if bulls can defend the $100,000 line or if a deeper correction is imminent.
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