SKN | Bernstein Sees $4T Opportunity as Figure Expands Into Tokenized Credit

Key Points:

• Bernstein assigns a $67 price target to Figure, implying significant upside potential.
• Tokenized credit could unlock a $4 trillion addressable market across multiple loan sectors.
• Figure is shifting from a HELOC lender to a blockchain and AI-driven credit platform.
• Loan volumes are rapidly growing, signaling strong adoption momentum.

Figure’s Pivot Beyond Traditional Lending

Figure Technology Solutions is undergoing a major transformation, moving beyond its origins in home equity lending into a broader ecosystem built on blockchain infrastructure and AI-powered credit systems.

According to Bernstein, this strategic pivot positions the company to capture a much larger market than traditional lending alone. The firm reiterated its “Outperform” rating, highlighting Figure’s potential to evolve into a key player in the next generation of financial markets.

Tokenization Opens a $4 Trillion Market

At the center of Bernstein’s bullish outlook is the rise of tokenized credit — the process of converting loans into digital, tradable assets on blockchain networks.

This model enables real-time settlement, improved liquidity and broader access to credit markets. Bernstein estimates that the total addressable market for tokenized credit could reach $4 trillion, spanning sectors such as mortgages, auto loans, small-business lending and home equity products.

While current adoption remains relatively small, the long-term potential reflects a major structural shift in how credit is issued, traded and managed.

Strong Growth Signals Market Traction

Figure’s recent performance supports the expansion narrative. The company recorded $1.34 billion in loan volume in April, representing a 108% year-over-year increase and marking continued momentum above the $1 billion monthly threshold.

Bernstein projects this growth trajectory to continue, with total loan volumes expected to rise from $8.4 billion in 2025 to $16.5 billion by 2027.

These figures suggest that demand for blockchain-enabled credit solutions is gaining traction, even at an early stage of adoption.

Bridging Traditional Finance and DeFi

Figure’s expansion reflects a broader industry trend toward integrating traditional financial assets with decentralized finance infrastructure.

Projects like Centrifuge are already experimenting with tokenized credit and Treasury products, aiming to connect institutional-grade assets with DeFi liquidity pools.

Figure is advancing this concept through its ecosystem, including ventures into auto lending and other credit categories, where tokenized assets can interact directly with blockchain-based markets.

Early Stage Market With Massive Upside

Despite rapid innovation, tokenized credit remains a relatively small segment, with the broader real-world asset (RWA) market currently valued at around $5.5 billion.

This gap between current scale and projected opportunity highlights the early-stage nature of the sector, as well as the potential for exponential growth if adoption accelerates.

A Structural Shift in Credit Markets

The move toward tokenization represents more than just technological innovation — it signals a fundamental change in how credit markets operate.

By enabling faster settlement, increased transparency and programmable financial instruments, blockchain-based credit systems could reshape lending and capital markets on a global scale.

For companies like Figure, this transition offers a pathway to move beyond niche fintech services and into the core infrastructure of future financial systems.