SKN | Bitcoin RSI Signals Momentum Shift, Pointing to Potential $105,000 Rebound

Bitcoin’s technical setup is flashing early signs of renewed upside momentum, with multiple relative strength index (RSI) signals aligning across higher and lower timeframes. While spot price remains range-bound below recent highs, traders are increasingly focused on momentum indicators that suggest the market may be preparing for a breakout toward the $103,000–$105,000 zone in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin has spent much of the past several months consolidating after its sharp pullback from October’s all-time high. Yet beneath the surface, momentum dynamics are quietly improving — a development that often precedes directional price expansion.

Weekly RSI breaks a multi-month downtrend

The most notable signal is emerging on Bitcoin’s weekly RSI. In a post on X, trader BitBull highlighted that the indicator has decisively broken above a three-month downtrend that began in September, even as price itself has remained trapped in a broad consolidation range.

RSI measures the speed and magnitude of price movements to assess whether an asset is overbought or oversold. Trendline breaks on RSI, particularly on higher timeframes, are often viewed as early indicators of changing market structure.

According to BitBull, Bitcoin’s weekly RSI breakout closely mirrors a similar setup seen earlier last year. That prior signal preceded several months of sustained upside, following local lows near $75,000 in April. If the pattern repeats, BitBull projects Bitcoin could revisit the $103,000–$105,000 area within the next three to four weeks.

Importantly, the RSI has not only broken its downtrend but is also holding above the breakout level — a condition technicians often interpret as confirmation rather than a false signal.

Longer-term momentum looks washed out, not overheated

Adding to the bullish case, James Easton, host of the DeCRYPTion trading podcast, pointed to conditions on the two-week RSI. He noted that the indicator is currently sitting at levels lower than those seen during Bitcoin’s last major bear-market bottom in late 2022.

That context matters. Historically, Bitcoin rallies tend to begin when momentum indicators recover from deeply compressed conditions, rather than when they are already elevated. Easton described the recent RSI turn as a bullish flip, suggesting the market may be transitioning from distribution to accumulation.

From a psychological standpoint, this reflects a shift in trader behavior. Extended periods of range-bound price action often drain confidence, reduce leverage, and reset expectations — creating conditions where incremental buying pressure can have an outsized impact once momentum turns.

Lower-timeframe divergence hints at weakening sell pressure

Momentum signals are also improving on lower timeframes. Data from TradingView shows a potential hidden bullish divergence on Bitcoin’s four-hour chart. In this setup, RSI has printed lower lows while price has held higher lows — a classic signal that selling pressure is fading even as price consolidates.

This divergence suggests that bears are losing control, particularly as Bitcoin attempts to establish the $90,000 level as near-term support. Such patterns often emerge ahead of breakout attempts, especially when aligned with improving higher-timeframe indicators.

Still, order-book dynamics show that upside is not uncontested. Trader Skew flagged a passive seller repeatedly offering between 60 and 100 BTC near the $91,500 level, capping short-term advances. While not large enough to overwhelm the market, this supply has been sufficient to stall momentum during thinner liquidity conditions.

Skew noted that buy pressure during recent U.S. trading sessions appeared to come from a consistent, price-insensitive participant — a “clear U.S. buyer” absorbing sell flow rather than chasing price higher.

What the setup implies going forward

Taken together, the RSI signals suggest Bitcoin may be coiling for a larger move, even if short-term volatility persists. Momentum is improving without signs of overheating, leverage has been reduced, and price continues to compress near key psychological levels.

The primary risk remains failure to hold support near $90,000, which could invite another liquidity sweep lower before a sustained rally develops. However, if buyers continue to absorb supply and RSI strength persists, the technical backdrop increasingly favors a test of six-figure prices rather than a breakdown.

For now, Bitcoin’s price may look calm — but momentum tells a more dynamic story is building underneath.