SKN | Bitcoin Tests Critical Long-Term Support as Weakening Momentum Raises Risk of a Drop Below $60,000

Key Points:

• Bitcoin fell to approximately $67,640 on November 13, returning to its 200-week simple moving average, a closely watched long-term market reference.
• The next important technical levels are the $65,750 bull market support trendline and the $60,000 psychological threshold, with further downside possible if selling pressure persists.
• A separate analysis by Material Indicators identifies 41.5 on the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) as a critical momentum threshold, with a potential move toward $57,700 if that support fails.

Bitcoin’s latest decline is putting its long-term technical structure under renewed pressure, as the cryptocurrency approaches levels that have historically attracted attention during major market corrections. The price reached approximately $67,640 on Friday, November 13, testing its 200-week simple moving average (SMA) after an accelerated sell-off. While this level could provide an opportunity for stabilization, weakening momentum has raised the possibility of another downward move, potentially taking Bitcoin below $60,000.

Bitcoin Returns to a Critical Long-Term Support Level

The latest decline has brought Bitcoin back toward its 200-week moving average, positioned around $68,000. This technical indicator is closely followed because it represents the cryptocurrency’s average price over an extended period and has historically served as an important reference during previous market cycles.

Bitcoin’s movement toward this level is significant because the market has not tested the average since August. However, reaching a widely watched support indicator does not guarantee a recovery. If sellers maintain control and the price fails to establish support, attention could shift toward the next major technical reference: the $65,750 bull market support trendline.

The distinction between briefly testing a support level and recording a sustained breakdown will be important. A temporary move below the average may reflect volatility, while continued weakness could indicate that longer-term market conditions are deteriorating.

Weekly Momentum Signals Raise the Risk of Further Losses

Beyond the moving averages, momentum indicators are becoming increasingly important in assessing Bitcoin’s direction. One closely watched measure is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which evaluates the strength and speed of price movements. Its readings can help analysts assess whether buying or selling pressure is strengthening.

In a separate analysis, Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan identified 41.5 on Bitcoin’s weekly RSI as a critical level. The indicator had previously established support around this reading in late July. Alan warned that a move below 41.5 could open the possibility of a retest of Bitcoin’s cycle low near $57,700. Successfully defending the level, by contrast, would preserve an important part of the bullish technical argument.

This scenario illustrates why the current correction deserves attention. The market is not simply testing a price threshold; it is also approaching a point where longer-term momentum could confirm or challenge the existing market structure.

The $60,000 Threshold Becomes an Important Downside Reference

The prospect of Bitcoin returning below $60,000 reflects the growing uncertainty surrounding its ability to stabilize above long-term support. A breakdown beneath $65,750 would place additional attention on lower historical price levels, while the $57,700 scenario identified by Alan would represent a further deterioration in the technical outlook.

Nevertheless, these levels should be interpreted as conditional scenarios rather than precise forecasts. Technical indicators describe market behavior and potential areas of interest, but they cannot establish when a decline will end or whether a particular support level will hold.

For institutional participants, the broader concern is whether the latest weakness represents a temporary correction or the beginning of a more sustained deterioration in market conditions. That distinction can influence liquidity management, derivatives exposure and risk assessments across cryptocurrency portfolios.

What Investors Should Monitor as Bitcoin Searches for Support

The immediate focus is whether Bitcoin can stabilize around its 200-week moving average and avoid a sustained move below the $65,750 trendline. A recovery above these levels could help reduce immediate downside pressure, although stronger evidence of improving momentum would still be needed to establish a more constructive outlook.

Conversely, continued selling and a deterioration in weekly RSI would strengthen the case for testing lower support areas, including the region below $60,000. The coming weekly price action will therefore be particularly important. Until Bitcoin demonstrates that buyers can defend its long-term technical structure, the balance of market risk remains tilted toward further volatility and a potentially deeper correction.