SKN | Bitcoin Traders Split Over Whether May Could Trigger Another Major Crypto Sell-Off

Key Points

• Some crypto analysts believe Bitcoin could repeat major May downturns seen during previous US midterm election years.
• Others argue institutional adoption, spot ETFs and regulatory progress have fundamentally changed Bitcoin’s market structure.
• Analysts continue closely watching the $76,000 support zone as a key level for Bitcoin’s short-term direction.

Crypto analysts are divided over whether Bitcoin could experience another major correction this May, reviving fears tied to historical “sell in May” patterns that appeared during previous bear market cycles.

The concern stems from similarities between the current market environment and prior midterm election years in the United States, which coincided with sharp Bitcoin declines in both 2018 and 2022.

In May 2018, Bitcoin dropped from nearly $10,000 to around $7,000 before continuing lower throughout the broader bear market. A similar pattern appeared in May 2022 when Bitcoin plunged from approximately $40,000 to $28,500 before eventually falling closer to $20,000 the following month.

With 2026 also being a midterm election year, some analysts are warning that another major drawdown could emerge if market conditions weaken further.

Bearish Analysts Warn of Possible Capitulation

Crypto analyst Merlijn Enkelaar argued that the pattern has historically repeated with unusual consistency during midterm election years.

According to Enkelaar, Bitcoin could potentially revisit levels as low as $33,000 if market sentiment deteriorates despite several major positive developments currently surrounding the crypto industry.

Those positive developments include the advancement of the CLARITY Act in Washington, growing regulatory momentum in favor of digital assets and improving relations between the United States and China.

Joao Wedson, founder and chief executive of Alphractal, also warned that Bitcoin may face another capitulation phase if prices remain below the $78,000 level.

Wedson said bears are beginning to show signs of renewed strength, increasing concerns that Bitcoin could face another extended period of downside pressure.

At the time of analysis, Bitcoin was trading near $76,900, down more than 5% over the previous seven days.

Institutional Adoption Changes Market Structure

Not all analysts believe history will repeat itself.

Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx, argued that the major Bitcoin collapses seen during previous cycles were not caused by seasonal calendar effects alone but by broader macroeconomic and industry-specific shocks.

Ko pointed to several historical events that drove earlier crashes, including the Mt. Gox collapse, China’s crackdown on initial coin offerings, aggressive Federal Reserve tightening and the Terra and FTX failures.

According to Ko, those extraordinary events — rather than the calendar itself — created the conditions for previous market collapses.

He added that Bitcoin’s market structure today looks significantly different from earlier cycles due to the rapid expansion of institutional participation.

ETFs and Institutions Reshape Bitcoin Market

Ko believes spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, corporate treasury adoption and ongoing regulatory progress have broadened Bitcoin’s buyer base far beyond previous cycles.

He argued that this institutionalization may reduce the probability of Bitcoin suffering the extreme 70% to 80% collapses witnessed during earlier bear markets.

While Ko acknowledged that Bitcoin could still decline toward the mid-$60,000 or high-$50,000 range during a severe macroeconomic shock or major ETF outflow event, he said a collapse toward $33,000 would likely require a much larger systemic breakdown.

The growing presence of long-term institutional investors is increasingly viewed as one of the key differences separating the current market cycle from earlier speculative periods dominated primarily by retail traders.

Traders Closely Monitor Key Support Levels

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe also pushed back against overly bearish expectations, arguing that Bitcoin’s current price behavior resembles consolidation following a major rally rather than the beginning of a new collapse.

Van de Poppe noted that Bitcoin recently gained approximately 40% before entering its current sideways trading range.

However, he emphasized that the $76,000 support level remains critically important for maintaining market stability.

According to Van de Poppe, losing that level could open the door for deeper downside moves and renewed selling pressure across crypto markets.

Market Awaits Next Major Catalyst

The debate highlights the uncertainty currently dominating crypto markets as traders weigh bullish institutional trends against ongoing macroeconomic concerns and historical market behavior.

Bitcoin’s next major move may ultimately depend less on seasonal patterns and more on broader developments involving inflation, interest rates, regulation and institutional capital flows.

For now, the crypto market remains locked between fears of another historical downturn and optimism that the growing institutionalization of Bitcoin has permanently reshaped its long-term trajectory.