SKN | BTC Traders Brace for Potential Crash Toward $75K as No Bottom Emerges: Research Firm Warns

Bitcoin traders are increasingly hedging for a sharp decline, with a major research firm flagging bets that the price could crash to $75,000, suggesting no clear bottom is in sight. The move comes amid heightened volatility across markets and growing macro‑risk pressure on crypto assets.

Market Reaction

Data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode shows that put options at the $75,000 strike on Deribit have dominated trading activity in the past week, as BTC spot prices slipped to around $84,000. This level of downside hedging — with more than 65% of options flow allocated to puts — reflects a growing consensus among sophisticated traders that risk is skewed lower. Meanwhile, technical analysts point to a double‑top pattern around $108,000 in Bitcoin’s daily chart, which, if confirmed, could accelerate downward momentum toward the $75K region.

Macro and Technical Risks

Macro headwinds are adding fuel to the concern. Global trade friction and risk‑off sentiment are undermining Bitcoin’s support levels — with some models warning that if $75,000 breaks, a deeper correction may follow. Analyst Sean Dawson of Derive pegs the probability of a drop below $75K by March at around 9.2%, citing implied volatility on BTC jumping from 52% to 76%. Technical momentum indicators reinforce the pessimism: daily RSI readings are at some of the lowest points seen in 2025, matching past crashes.

Investor Sentiment and Strategic Behavior

From a behavioral perspective, this hedging pattern suggests investors are not merely treating this as a short-term pullback but are positioning for a more sustained downtrend. The dominance of long-dated put option buying — paired with selling of short-dated volatility — indicates traders are looking to capture potential mispricings amid higher market stress. Some market participants also see echoes of bearish legacy calls: critics like Peter Schiff have publicly warned that Bitcoin could retest the $70K–$75K range, claiming fundamental and institutional overreach may be unwinding.

Technical Sentiment & Pattern Risk

The technical picture is equally nuanced. Oversold momentum indicators — particularly the RSI — are signaling extreme conditions not seen since prior major corrections, suggesting a potential relief bounce. Yet, that does not necessarily mean a new bull run; traders argue a rebound could be shallow, with the $76,000 area still viewed as a likely bottom of the ongoing correction.

Looking ahead, the key risk to monitor is whether Bitcoin decisively breaks below the $75,000 support zone. If it does, we could see further downside pressure amplified by derivatives markets. On the flip side, if implied volatility stabilizes or macro conditions improve, traders may unwind hedges, opening a window for short-term relief. Either way, the next few weeks will be critical for determining whether this is a technical pause or the start of a deeper correction.