Key Points:
- Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold reached its highest level since 2020, according to Bitwise, as both assets rallied during renewed macro and bond-market stress.
- Bitcoin gained 22.4% in one week, while gold rose roughly 5%, highlighting the stronger upside and volatility still embedded in BTC.
- Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq-100 fell to approximately 0.33, a one-year low, suggesting BTC is becoming less tightly linked to high-growth technology equities.
Bitcoin is showing signs of a potentially important shift in how global investors are positioning the asset. New research from Bitwise indicates that BTC’s 90-day correlation with gold has reached its highest level since 2020, while its relationship with the Nasdaq-100 has weakened sharply. The change comes as rising long-term Treasury yields, fiscal concerns and renewed debate over monetary credibility reshape cross-asset positioning.
Bitcoin and Gold Move Closer Together
According to Bitwise Director and Head of Research Europe André Dragosch, Bitcoin gained 22.4% during the latest one-week period, marking its strongest weekly performance since March 2024. Gold, meanwhile, advanced approximately 5%, while equities declined amid heightened bond-market volatility.
The 90-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and gold subsequently reached its highest level in nearly six years. Bitwise data, based on Bloomberg market series through August 31, show that the last comparable period occurred in 2020, when governments and central banks deployed extraordinary fiscal and monetary support during the COVID-19 crisis. :
The development does not make Bitcoin equivalent to gold. Gold has thousands of years of monetary history and remains deeply embedded in central-bank and institutional portfolios, whereas Bitcoin is a relatively young and substantially more volatile asset. However, the correlation suggests that investors may increasingly group both assets together when macroeconomic uncertainty and concerns over currency purchasing power become dominant market themes.
BTC Decouples From the Nasdaq-100
The other side of the shift is visible in Bitcoin’s relationship with technology stocks. Bitwise reported that BTC’s 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq-100 fell to a one-year low, reaching roughly 0.33 in late August. That represents a notable change from periods when Bitcoin behaved more like a high-beta technology asset, particularly during the broader AI-driven equity rally.
A correlation near 0.33 still indicates a positive relationship, but it is materially weaker than the stronger connections observed earlier in the year. For institutional allocators, the distinction matters because Bitcoin’s sensitivity to technology-sector risk has historically complicated its classification as a portfolio diversifier. A sustained reduction in that relationship could broaden the macro framework through which BTC is evaluated.
The Dollar and Treasury Market Add Another Layer
Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index stood around negative 0.35 at the end of August, according to Bitwise. The inverse relationship indicates that periods of dollar weakness have recently coincided with stronger Bitcoin performance, reinforcing the connection between BTC and other scarce or hard assets.
The Treasury market provides important context. The U.S. Treasury announced that liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated nominal securities would increase from a maximum of $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, beginning September 9. The move followed a sharp rise in long-term yields and growing concerns surrounding the U.S. fiscal outlook.
Why the Correlation Shift Matters for Crypto Markets
Over the past three months, Bitcoin has gained approximately 30.59%, compared with roughly 2.62% for gold. That performance gap illustrates an important distinction: Bitcoin may increasingly participate in the same macro “debasement trade” as gold while retaining considerably higher volatility.
For professional investors, the key question is therefore not whether Bitcoin has become gold, but whether its market drivers are becoming less dependent on technology equities. If the correlation trend persists, future BTC performance could become increasingly sensitive to Treasury yields, dollar liquidity, fiscal policy and perceptions of monetary stability rather than simply movements in high-growth stocks.
That thesis remains unproven. Correlations can change rapidly, particularly during liquidity shocks, and Bitcoin can still experience significantly larger drawdowns than gold. Investors will therefore be watching whether the gold relationship persists through the next phase of U.S. monetary policy, inflation data and Treasury-market volatility. A sustained divergence from equities alongside continued strength in gold would provide stronger evidence that Bitcoin is evolving from a predominantly risk-on asset toward a more distinct macro hedge.
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