SKN | MSCI Excludes Strategy From Global Equity Indexes, Raising Questions Over Its Bitcoin Accumulation Model

Key Points:

• MSCI will remove Strategy from its global equity indexes, including the MSCI USA Index, after the market close on November 30, under new rules excluding nonoperating companies.
• Estimated passive selling ranges from approximately 13 million shares, worth $1.6 billion, to substantially higher outflow projections, depending on which index providers and funds are affected.
• The greater concern is the potential compression of Strategy’s market-to-net-asset-value premium, currently around 1.08 times, which could weaken the economics of issuing new shares to finance additional Bitcoin purchases.

MSCI’s decision to remove Strategy, the world’s largest publicly listed corporate holder of Bitcoin, from its global equity indexes represents a significant challenge for the company’s institutional market positioning. The exclusion, effective after the close on November 30, follows new rules targeting companies classified as nonoperating entities. Although the decision does not require Strategy to sell its Bitcoin, analysts warn that reduced passive investment demand could pressure its share valuation and complicate the capital-raising strategy that has supported its accumulation of digital assets.

Index Exclusion Could Trigger Institutional Selling

MSCI confirmed that Strategy will be removed from several widely followed benchmarks, including the MSCI USA Index. The decision also affects Tokyo-listed Bitcoin treasury company Metaplanet, which will leave the MSCI Japan Small Cap Index.

Because index-tracking funds are designed to replicate benchmark compositions, removing a company generally requires those funds to sell their holdings. BloFin Research estimated that MSCI-linked selling could reach approximately 13 million Strategy shares, representing around 3.1% of shares outstanding and less than one typical trading day’s volume. Strategy provided a similar estimate during MSCI’s consultation process, valuing the holdings at approximately $1.6 billion based on Wednesday’s share price.

JPMorgan previously estimated potential outflows of $2.8 billion, with the possibility of $8.8 billion if other index providers followed MSCI. These projections were based on an earlier proposal rather than the final rules. The estimates therefore represent different scenarios, not a single confirmed amount of forced selling.

The Greater Risk Is Pressure on Strategy’s Bitcoin Financing Model

Strategy has historically financed Bitcoin acquisitions through convertible notes, preferred stock and common-share issuance. This approach depends partly on its equity trading at a premium to the value of its underlying Bitcoin holdings, measured through its multiple of net asset value (mNAV).

When mNAV exceeds 1.0 times, Strategy can potentially issue shares at a valuation above the Bitcoin backing them, increasing Bitcoin holdings per share. Near 1.0 times, that advantage becomes smaller. Below 1.0 times, issuing additional equity can become dilutive to existing shareholders.

BloFin Research warned that the loss of passive index demand could further compress Strategy’s premium, which was approximately 1.08 times at the time of the report, down from a peak of 3.4 times in November 2024. This matters because the company’s ability to raise capital efficiently is closely connected to the market valuation investors assign to its equity.

Recent Capital Allocation Shows a Changing Strategy

Strategy’s November 9 filing, covering the week ended November 8, illustrates how its capital allocation has evolved. The company raised $283.8 million through the sale of 2.05 million common shares. However, only $81.9 million was allocated to acquiring 1,036 Bitcoin.

Another $188.3 million was used to repurchase STRC preferred stock, while $13.6 million was added to cash. The filing also reported a $4.77 billion cash reserve as of November 8. Strategy used $21.1 million from that reserve to pay preferred dividends during the week and reported no Bitcoin sales.

The figures suggest that raising capital does not necessarily translate directly into additional Bitcoin purchases. The company must also manage preferred-stock obligations, liquidity and its broader capital structure.

Analysts Disagree on the Wider Market Consequences

Markus Thielen of 10x Research argued that much of the exclusion may already be reflected in Strategy’s share price. He does not expect significant spillover into Bitcoin itself, noting that compressed valuation premiums have reduced the influence of corporate treasury companies on the broader market.

Independent Bitcoin analyst Derin Olenik takes a more cautious view, warning that the decision could undermine the institutional-adoption narrative supporting the corporate Bitcoin treasury model. Both analysts point toward a possible evolution in the sector: companies may need to move beyond accumulating Bitcoin and develop productive business models that generate returns from their digital-asset holdings.

Strategy’s exclusion will become effective on November 30, but its longer-term consequences will depend on whether other index providers follow MSCI and how investors reassess the company’s financing structure. For Bitcoin markets, the distinction remains important: the decision does not directly remove BTC from Strategy’s balance sheet. Its more immediate significance lies in the potential pressure on the equity premium that has helped finance the company’s accumulation strategy.