SKN | Recent Bitcoin Holders Sell $770M at Loss as Analysts Warn of Potential Drop Toward $65K

Market Pressure Intensifies as Bitcoin Loses Momentum

Bitcoin fell to approximately $76,500 on Monday, erasing most of May’s gains as rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran weakened broader market sentiment.
The decline marks a roughly 7% correction from Bitcoin’s recent local high of $82,800 reached earlier this month and reflects a growing shift toward risk-off positioning across digital asset markets.

Technical rejection near the 200-day moving average around $82,000, combined with weakening spot demand and declining speculative activity, has increased concerns that Bitcoin may be entering a deeper corrective phase.

Short-Term Holders Capitulate Amid Market Weakness

Onchain data from CryptoQuant revealed that short-term holders — investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days — transferred more than 10,000 BTC to Binance at a loss during Monday’s sell-off.

With Bitcoin trading near $76,900 during the transfers and the average acquisition cost for these holders estimated at $78,440, approximately $770 million worth of BTC was sold below cost basis.

Analysts describe the move as a classic “weak hands” capitulation event, where newer investors rapidly exit positions during periods of heightened volatility. Similar behavior occurred in November 2025, shortly before Bitcoin experienced a sharp 15% decline over five days.

Additional Glassnode data shows that more than 7.8 million BTC are currently being held at a loss, creating what analysts describe as a significant “supply overhang” that the market must absorb before any sustainable upward trend can emerge.

Institutional Outflows Add to Bearish Pressure

Institutional sentiment has also weakened considerably. US-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded
$648.6 million in net outflows on Monday, marking the largest single-day withdrawal since January.

More broadly, global Bitcoin investment products experienced approximately $981.5 million in net outflows during the week ending May 15, suggesting institutional investors are reducing exposure amid rising macro uncertainty and declining momentum.

Analysts say the combination of ETF outflows, futures market selling, and weakening retail participation reflects a broader flight from speculative assets as traders seek lower-risk positioning.

Technical Outlook: Can Bitcoin Hold Key Support?

Market analysts are increasingly focused on the critical support zone between $74,500 and $76,000. Failure to maintain this range could trigger a cascade toward the next major support region near $65,000–$70,000.

CryptoQuant’s HODL Waves indicator suggests Bitcoin may ultimately establish a cycle bottom between $65,900 and $70,500, supported by a stronger long-term holder base and growing institutional ownership compared with previous market cycles.

However, technical momentum remains fragile. Bitcoin is currently printing multiple consecutive daily red candles, indicating sellers continue to dominate short-term price action. Analysts warn that a decisive break below the 50-day moving average near $76,000 could accelerate downside pressure significantly.

Investor Psychology Shifts Toward Capital Preservation

The recent correction highlights a familiar psychological pattern in crypto markets: rapid shifts from optimism to defensive positioning when momentum weakens.
Short-term holders, typically more sensitive to volatility, appear to be prioritizing capital preservation over long-term conviction.

At the same time, longer-term investors continue to hold a substantial share of supply, suggesting the broader market structure remains stronger than in prior bear-market cycles.
Whether that resilience is sufficient to prevent a deeper correction will likely depend on macro conditions, ETF demand, and Bitcoin’s ability to defend key technical levels.