BitMine chair Tom Lee has backed away from his highly publicized forecast that Bitcoin would reach $250,000 by the end of 2025, easing one of the most aggressively bullish predictions in the market. After months of insisting the target was achievable, Lee now says only that Bitcoin may reclaim its October all-time high of $125,100 before year-end.

Lee Signals a Shift in Expectations

Speaking with CNBC on Wednesday, Lee said he still considers it “very likely” that Bitcoin will rise above $100,000 in the coming weeks. However, he stopped short of reasserting the $250,000 figure he repeatedly promoted through early October. His comments represent the first noticeable softening of his stance, suggesting the recent market downturn has forced a reassessment.

Other high-profile executives had already dismissed the idea that Bitcoin could reach such heights so quickly. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz warned in October that “crazy stuff” would need to occur for BTC to even approach Lee’s target. Despite this, Lee remains confident that some of Bitcoin’s strongest trading days are still ahead, arguing that the final stretch of 2025 could produce outsized gains.

Bitcoin’s Biggest Moves Often Come in Short Bursts

Lee emphasized Bitcoin’s historical tendency to generate the majority of its annual gains in only a handful of sessions. According to his analysis, BTC typically “makes its move” in just ten trading days each year. This view is shared widely in the industry. Earlier in 2024, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley noted that missing those ten critical days often results in missing nearly the entire year’s return.

The pattern held true again this year. Bitcoin’s ten strongest trading days delivered a combined return of more than 50%, while the other 355 days of 2024 averaged negative performance. That extreme asymmetry underscores why many long-term investors remain confident despite the asset’s current drawdown.

Market Pressure Mounts as Bitcoin Tries to Recover

Bitcoin has traded in a persistent downtrend since Oct. 10, weighed down by a $19 billion wave of liquidations that followed President Donald Trump’s surprise announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods. The market-wide deleveraging pushed BTC below $90,000 for six straight days, a sharp departure from November’s historically strong track record.

The cryptocurrency only regained the $90,000 level on Wednesday. Some analysts argue that the worst of the correction may have already passed. Economist Timothy Peterson suggested this week that the bottom either occurred already or will be confirmed within days. Even so, sentiment remains fragile as traders weigh macro uncertainty, inflation risks and the fading of earlier catalysts that fueled Bitcoin’s rally.

A Track Record of Both Hits and Misses

Lee’s predictions over the years have produced a mixed scoreboard. In 2018, he projected Bitcoin could climb to $125,000 by 2022—a level that ultimately wasn’t reached until October 2025. But he has also delivered accurate forecasts. In 2017, he projected that BTC could reach $20,000 in a base-case scenario by 2022, which happened in December 2020. His more optimistic scenario of $55,000 was met even earlier, in March 2021.

His latest comments suggest a more cautious approach, recognizing that Bitcoin’s trajectory may be slower than originally expected. Even so, he maintains that the long-term outlook remains strong and that some of Bitcoin’s most powerful trading days could still arrive before the end of the current cycle.