Key Points:
- Bitcoin opened at $80,351.40 on Monday, September 7, before falling to $79,349.91 by 9:41 a.m. ET.
- Ethereum opened at $2,514.80, up 1.4% from Sunday’s opening price, before easing to $2,497.60.
- Markets are focused on upcoming inflation data after a strong U.S. jobs report left traders pricing approximately a 58% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike on September 16.
Bitcoin and Ethereum entered Monday under pressure as crypto investors shifted their attention from price momentum to the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate decision. Bitcoin initially opened higher while Ethereum posted its strongest opening level since August 22, but both assets subsequently retreated as markets continued to digest a stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market and prepare for critical inflation data later this week.
Bitcoin Gives Back Early Gains
Bitcoin opened Monday at $80,351.40, approximately 0.7% above Sunday’s opening price, but had fallen back to $79,349.91 by 9:41 a.m. ET. The move leaves BTC above its levels from one week earlier and approximately 25% higher than one month ago, although it remains roughly 27.1% below its October 2025 record high of $126,198.07.
The retreat also follows Bitcoin’s failure to sustain a move above the $81,400 area over the weekend. CoinDesk reported that BTC was trading around $79,300 on Monday, down approximately 1.3% from midnight UTC, while Nasdaq-100 futures were rising 0.3%. The divergence is notable because Bitcoin has recently shown periods of weaker correlation with U.S. technology equities.
Ethereum Shows Stronger Monthly Momentum
Ethereum opened at $2,514.80, 1.4% above Sunday’s opening price, before declining to $2,497.60. Despite the intraday pullback, ETH remained approximately 4% above its opening level one week earlier and 32.2% higher than one month ago. Over the same one-year period, however, Ethereum remained down approximately 41.2%, underscoring the distance between its current price and its previous cycle peak.
The relative performance illustrates why professional investors are watching the two major assets differently. Bitcoin remains closely tied to macro liquidity and institutional flows, while Ethereum has additional exposure to network activity, decentralized finance and the broader tokenization ecosystem.
Jobs Data Puts Inflation Back at the Center
The immediate macro catalyst is the U.S. labor market. Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report initially pushed Bitcoin from around $81,300 to $78,700, while the two-year Treasury yield climbed from 4.36% to 4.42%. Yet market-implied expectations for a September rate increase have not changed dramatically.
According to CME FedWatch data cited by CoinDesk, traders currently price a 58% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the September 16 meeting, taking the target range to 3.75%–4%. That probability is broadly similar to the level seen a week earlier, suggesting that the jobs report has not fundamentally altered rate expectations.
September Inflation Data Could Determine the Next Move
The next major test is the August inflation report due September 11. A softer-than-expected reading could reduce the case for another rate increase, while persistent inflation could reinforce the argument for tighter policy.
For crypto investors, the distinction matters because Bitcoin and Ethereum remain highly sensitive to changes in liquidity expectations even when their longer-term fundamentals differ. With BTC futures open interest falling to approximately 670,000 BTC from 709,000 on Friday, leverage is already being reduced. The coming inflation data and September 16 Fed decision will therefore determine whether the current consolidation develops into renewed institutional demand or another period of defensive positioning.
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