SKN | Bitcoin Holders From Last Year’s Rally Sell Near Break-Even as BTC Struggles Above $85,000

Key Points:

• Bitcoin investors who entered during last year’s rally are selling more coins per day than at any other point in 2026, according to Glassnode.
• Holders who bought one to two years ago have an average cost basis near $97,000, while the six-to-12-month group has a cost basis near $89,000.
• Investors who accumulated Bitcoin during the subsequent decline are showing less selling activity, concentrating potential supply pressure among recent rally buyers.

Bitcoin investors who bought during last year’s rally are increasingly selling their holdings as the cryptocurrency struggles to sustain levels above $85,000. According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the selling activity from these cohorts has reached its highest daily level of 2026, highlighting the importance of investor cost bases as Bitcoin trades below the levels at which many recent buyers entered the market.

The data provides a different perspective on current Bitcoin market conditions. Rather than showing uniform selling across the entire holder base, Glassnode’s analysis indicates that supply pressure is concentrated among investors whose holdings remain below their average acquisition prices.

Two Investor Groups Remain Below Break-Even

Glassnode grouped Bitcoin holders according to when they acquired their coins and calculated the average price paid by each cohort. This cost basis represents the approximate level at which a group would collectively reach break-even, making it an important metric for understanding potential selling behavior.

Investors who purchased Bitcoin between one and two years ago have an estimated average cost basis near $97,000. A second group that bought between six and 12 months ago has an average cost basis of approximately $89,000.

With Bitcoin struggling to break above $85,000, both groups remain below their respective break-even levels. That creates a potential incentive for holders to reduce exposure if the market approaches their original purchase prices, particularly among investors seeking to exit positions without realizing significant losses.

Selling Pressure Is Concentrated Among Rally Buyers

The significance of Glassnode’s analysis is that selling is not occurring evenly throughout the Bitcoin holder base. Investors who accumulated Bitcoin during the subsequent market decline are reportedly not selling at the same rate.

This divergence can influence market dynamics. If long-term holders remain relatively inactive while more recent investors sell, available supply may become concentrated among specific price cohorts. The behavior also suggests that investor decisions are being influenced by entry prices and unrealized gains or losses rather than simply by Bitcoin’s current market value.

For institutional market participants, cohort behavior can provide additional information beyond conventional trading-volume data. A market experiencing selling from loss-making holders may behave differently from one in which long-term holders are broadly distributing accumulated positions.

Cost Basis Becomes a Key Market Indicator

The approximately $89,000 and $97,000 cost-basis levels are particularly relevant because they represent potential psychological thresholds for investors. As Bitcoin approaches these levels, holders who entered during the corresponding periods may reassess their positions and decide whether to retain, reduce, or exit their exposure.

Such behavior can create additional supply when prices approach investors’ break-even points. However, the Glassnode data does not establish that these holders will necessarily sell at those levels. Market participants can respond differently depending on their time horizon, liquidity requirements, and expectations for future Bitcoin prices.

The distinction is important because on-chain data identifies observed behavior and estimated cost structures, but it does not provide certainty about future transactions.

What Investors Will Watch Next

The key question for Bitcoin markets is whether selling from last year’s rally cohorts continues as prices move around the mid-$80,000 range. A decline in distribution from these investors could reduce near-term supply pressure, while continued selling could make it more difficult for Bitcoin to establish sustained momentum.

Investors will therefore monitor on-chain distribution patterns, cohort cost bases, trading volumes, and Bitcoin’s ability to move through the approximately $89,000 and $97,000 levels. The behavior of investors who bought during the 2025 rally could remain an important factor in determining how much supply enters the market as Bitcoin approaches their break-even prices.