SKN | Bitcoin Sell‑Off Driven by Mid‑Cycle Traders While Long‑Term Whales Hold: VanEck Analysis

Bitcoin’s recent pullback is being driven not by veteran “OG” whales, but by mid‑cycle holders, according to VanEck’s mid‑November 2025 ChainCheck report. While shorter-term holders have been dumping, wallets that haven’t moved coins in more than five years continue to accumulate, suggesting deep-seated conviction among long-term investors.

Market Reaction: Mid-Cycle Selling Over Long-Term Capitulation

VanEck’s on‑chain research shows that wallets whose BTC last moved three to five years ago have shed roughly 32 % of their supply over the past two years. That corridor, often associated with “cycle traders,” is now a significant source of selling pressure. By contrast, coins that were last active more than five years ago have increased by some 278,000 BTC over the same span — a strong signal that long-term whales are not exiting in mass.

Simultaneously, VanEck highlights outflows from exchange-traded products (ETPs): since October 10, around 49,300 BTC (≈ 2 % of AUM) were redeemed. This suggests that recent buyers may be having second thoughts amid macro headwinds and fading AI-driven speculation.

Futures Reset: Speculative Positioning Unwinds

On the derivatives side, VanEck points to a sharp unwind of speculative bets. Open interest in bitcoin perpetual futures has dropped by approximately 20% in BTC terms and 32% in USD terms since early October. Funding rates — a key measure of bullish leverage — have likewise collapsed to levels not seen since late 2023.

These moves, VanEck argues, reflect a broad “reset” in futures markets: speculative longs are liquidating, and market structure is aligning more with previous wash‑out conditions than with a liquid, frothy bull run.

Investor Sentiment & Behavioral Dynamics

Sentiment indicators underscore the gloom. VanEck notes that the Fear & Greed Index has dropped to its weakest reading since March, aligning with underlying tariff‑driven macro fears. The sell-off seems less about opportunistic profit-taking by legacy holders, and more about a cohort of mid‑cycle traders who may be locking in multi-year gains or repositioning ahead of macro uncertainty.

Interestingly, within the whale segment, there is a nuanced flow: while “mega” whales (10K–100K BTC) have reduced holdings by 6%–11% over the last 6–12 months, smaller whales holding 100–1,000 BTC have grown balances by 9% over six months and 23% over a year.  This rotation suggests supply being redistributed rather than a simple broad liquidation.

Bitcoin’s current landscape, according to VanEck, is defined by strategic rebalancing, not panic among legacy holders. If the oldest cohorts remain steady, the down‑leg could offer a tactical window for investors who interpret this as a reset, not capitulation.

Looking ahead, risks remain: further ETP outflows, renewed macro shocks, or a resurgence in leveraged speculation could deepen the decline. But for those watching on-chain trends, the accumulation behavior of long-term whales provides a counterweight — and perhaps a foundation — for a more measured recovery, assuming conditions stabilize.